Key points:
• Latvia’s ban on flavored vaping products, effective Jan. 1, 2025, led to a decline of more than €1.5 million in excise tax revenue from vaping liquids in the first half of the year. Despite the ban, the illegal market share for flavored vapes rose to 42.4%.
• Flavor bans in Latvia (2025), Estonia (2019), and Lithuania (2022) have not reduced vaping. Instead, they have fueled a growing black market. Estonia and Lithuania are among EU countries with the highest vaping rates.
• Some retailers are circumventing the ban by selling separate bottles of unflavored nicotine and flavoring. Additionally, Latvians travel to neighboring countries, like Lithuania, to legally purchase flavored vaping products.
• Illicit vape products are widely sold through social media and Telegram, often at prices about 20% below the legal market. These operations can generate tens of thousands of euros in monthly revenue, yet enforcement remains limited and penalties low.
2Firsts, October 13,2025(By Vladislav Vorotnikov) --Less than a year after Latvia imposed a ban on flavored tobacco products, market supporters and opponents of the restrictions have come to a consensus that the move has prodBuced unintended consequences rather than the expected results.
A series of publications in the Latvian press reveals that the anti-vaping campaign launched by the Latvian authorities on Jan. 1, 2025, when sales of flavored liquids were prohibited in the country, did not unfold as planned.
According to LA.LV, citing the State Revenue Service, during the first half of 2025 Latvia’s budget revenues from vaping liquids declined by more than €1.5 million compared with the same period a year earlier. In the segment of tobacco substitutes, the shortfall reached about €1.4 million. For a small European country with a population of 1.8 million, such losses are significant.
On the other hand, the practical results of the anti-vaping campaign remain more than questionable. During the first four months of 2025, the share of illegal sales on the market of flavored e-cigarettes rose to 42.4 percent of the market, up from 31.4 percent a year earlier, LA.LV, a local news service, reported in August.
These figures are rather optimistic, according to LA.LV. “The real indicators [of the illegal market growth] are likely higher," the publication wrote. Traders note a massive shift of customers to the illegal market, where products undergo neither quality testing nor state supervision.
In cracking down on vapes, Latvia followed the example of neighboring countries. Estonia has prohibited the sale of flavored e-cigarette liquids since 2019, and Lithuania followed suit in 2022. In neither of these countries have the restrictions succeeded in lowering vaping consumption.
According to the Estonian National Institute for Health Development (TAI), about 4.4 percent of the general population use e-cigarettes, while among 16- to 24-year-olds the rate is 11 to 12 percent — among the highest youth vaping levels in the EU. Aive Telling, head of environmental health policy at the Ministry of Social Affairs, said Estonia prefers EU-wide regulation over individual national bans: “A single member state cannot achieve the desired effect through such a ban. We support a unified EU approach.” (Source: ERR, Dec. 31, 2024.)
Notably, Estonia and Lithuania are among EU countries with some of the highest vaping rates, indicating a robust black market for flavored products, the World Vaping Alliance reported, citing a 2024 survey by Eurobarometer.
While new legislation prohibits vape shops from selling flavored nicotine liquids, this rule is easily circumvented. For example, some shops sell two bottles of e-liquids: one containing odorless and tasteless nicotine, and one containing flavoring. Consumers mix the bottles and get the same product as before.
In parallel to imposing a ban on flavored tobacco products, Latvia has prohibited the sale of tobacco products, their substitutes, electronic cigarettes and their components through channels of remote communication.
The move was aimed at preventing the cross-border trade of banned products with states without such restrictions, but it has also fallen short of its targets. Reports in the local press suggest that citizens of Latvia frequently visit neighboring EU countries to buy flavored liquids.
The distance between Riga, the Latvian capital, and Lithuania is around 200 km, and good connections makes such a trip easy and cheap. For example, train tickets for this journey start at €17.
Forbidden Fruit
Occasional reports suggest that the illicit business in Latvia and other Baltic states was thriving even before the restrictions came into effect.
A survey conducted by Professor Arnis Sauka of the Riga School of Economics revealed a network of sellers offering various products, including those with high nicotine content, through social media and Telegram channels.
Things are believed to be similar in the neighboring Estonia and Lithuania. A survey conducted by 2Firsts in Telegram revealed the existence of a dozen shops in Tallinn and several dozen in Vilnius selling vapes and nicotine liquids.
The shops are selling a variety of products, including those legally permitted, though at a price nearly 20% below the average in the legal segment of the market.
On top of that, the penalties for illegal sellers remain low. In Latvia, an individual found guilty of selling prohibited products will be fined between €280 and €700, and a legal entity will be fined between €700 and €7,100, according to local media.
Professor Sauka's research found that an average illegal shop can generate net revenue close to €100,000 per month, and cases when illegal sellers get caught by law enforcement agencies remain rare.
A Way Out
Remarkably, even anti-vaping NGOs admit that the initiative to prohibit flavored liquids in Latvia has largely failed to achieve its goals.
"The data clearly shows that the flavoring ban did not achieve the expected result of reducing consumption. On the contrary, it reduced the legal and regulated market share and excise tax revenues, while simultaneously fueling smuggling and illegal trafficking of e-liquids," Edmund Kantsevich, head of the Tobacco-Free Products Association, told Mix News.
Acknowledging the challenges of regulating the vape market independently, Estonia in recent years has been advocating for EU-wide restrictions.
According to the country’s Ministry of Social Affairs, Estonia prefers EU-wide regulation over individual country bans to achieve a unified and effective approach.
The Latvian Tobacco-Free Products Association believes that instead of blanket bans, the government should follow the example of other EU countries, where flavored vaping liquids are permitted but strictly regulated.
"We advocate a balanced approach—ensuring strict quality control and oversight while allowing the legal market to operate. Otherwise, budget losses will continue, and the illegal market will grow," Kantsevich said.
The cover image was generated by ChatGPT.
