Key Points:
- Consumption: Tobacco and nicotine product use in Ukraine has continued to rise during the war years.
- Users: By early March 2025, 31% of respondents were using tobacco or nicotine products.
- Structure: Conventional cigarettes remain dominant among current users, while e-cigarettes hold a notable share.
- Illicit trade: The shadow tobacco market reached 16.2% in 2025, according to Kantar Ukraine.
- Youth: Nearly one in five Ukrainian adolescents aged 13-15 were using e-cigarettes, according to survey results presented in 2025.
2Firsts
Apirl 17, 2026
Four years after the start of the full-scale hostilities in 2022, Ukraine's tobacco market continues to undergo profound changes, with prolonged stress contributing to a steady rise in consumption, creating fertile ground for the expansion of the illicit trade, and at the same time pushing the government to raise excise duties on cigarettes as it seeks to shore up a heavily strained budget.
1. Smoking rates climb
A steady rise in tobacco consumption is often cited as one of the key changes for the Ukrainian consumer goods market since the Russian troops crossed the country's border in February 2022.
During the first year of the fight, the number of smokers of conventional cigarettes jumped by 5%, Healthy Initiatives, a public health organization, reported in April 2023, citing a series of opinion polls conducted during the previous two years.
The number of daily smokers climbed by 2.3%, and the number of smokers who use tobacco less than daily increased by 2.4%, Natalia Toropova, the Healthy Initiative director, said in a video posted on YouTube. Around 26.5% of the Ukrainian population was smoking.
"The overall trend is disappointing. Ukrainians have started smoking more. This is expected; it's a reaction to the stress of war and a complete shift in life priorities," Toropova said.
The first year of hostilities has reversed a long-term trend of a steady decline in tobacco consumption in Ukraine.
Opinion polls conducted in the following years showed that the trend of a prevalence of smoking has only gained momentum.
As of early March 2025, the number of tobacco and nicotine product users rose to 31%, up nearly 4% from October 2024, according to research by the Kyiv International Sociological Institute.
Remarkably, the researchers discovered that almost every second Ukrainian man last year was using tobacco or nicotine products, which is believed to be one of the highest levels in Europe. In the 18-29 age group, the rate was 45%.
Conventional cigarettes continue dominating the market, accounting for a 73% share. E-cigarettes hold a 17% share, somewhat lower than in neighboring countries.
Estimates vary across studies, reflecting differences in methodology and sample coverage, but they all point in the same direction: the share of smokers in Ukraine is on the rise.
"Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, the percentage of daily smokers among men has increased from 38% to 45%. Among women, the figure has increased from 10.8% to 19%, demonstrating a significant expansion of the cigarette market in Ukraine," Pro-Consulting, a Kiev-based think tank estimated.
Vapes have demonstrated the most dynamic growth, with consumption increasing by 21% in 2024, Pro-Consulting said, without providing additional details. Traditional industrial cigarettes have increased by only 14%, due to pricing policy and increased excise taxes.
While heightened stress levels are often cited as a key driver of rising tobacco use, they are not the only factor at play. Demographic shifts linked to outward migration have also reshaped consumption patterns: over the past few years, those leaving the country have disproportionately been women and children, while a larger share of men—who statistically have higher smoking rates—have remained.
2. Filling the war coffers
Ukraine has been steadily increasing excise duties on cigarettes, a policy initially driven by the goal of aligning tobacco regulation with EU standards. In recent years, however, these hikes have taken on a more pronounced fiscal role, becoming an important source of revenue for a budget under significant strain.
Between 2016 and 2025, the price of a pack of cigarettes in Ukraine jumped from UAH 19 (USD 0.43) to UAH 135 (USD 3.09), and by 2030, it is projected to reach UAH 223 (USD 5.1). While the Ukrainian population's income remains unchanged, these dynamics put pressure on consumers with low purchasing power, Pro-Consulting said.
"This leads to the rise in the shadow market and an increase in illegal trade," Pro-Consulting stated.
In 2025, the share of the shadow segment of the Ukrainian tobacco market reached 16.2% against 14.1% at the beginning of 2025, according to a survey by Kantar Ukraine.
Experts estimate that illegal cigarettes have flooded the market due to weak duty-free product controls, abuse of export schemes, and law enforcement inaction.
The largest volumes have been observed in the Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Lviv regions, which account for 27%, 13%, and 10% of the illicit market respectively, according to Kantar.
Budget losses from unpaid excise taxes and VAT have already exceeded UAH 25 billion per year (USD 570 million), and nearly UAH 90 billion (USD 2.06 billion) since 2022.
3. Youngs smoke vapes, military cigarettes
Ukraine experiences a rise in the popularity of electronic cigarettes among the young population. According to the 2023 Global Youth Tobacco Survey results presented in 2025, nearly 20% of Ukrainian adolescents aged 13-15 were using e-cigarettes, the Ukrainian Healthcare Ministry reported.
"Despite the marketing of tobacco and nicotine products for adults, there is a clear trend among manufacturers to target youth. Unfortunately, these marketing efforts are having an effect – increasingly more youth are being drawn to tobacco and nicotine use," the Ministry said.
As Ukrainian law enforcement agencies are short-staffed and have multiple duties to attend to, control over the tobacco market remains rather weak. Almost half of the teenagers surveyed admitted that they did not experience difficulties in purchasing cigarettes due to their age.
According to Pro-Consulting, as the excise rate for e-cigarettes is about to decline and for conventional cigarettes to rise, the former has the potential to expand its share in the Ukrainian tobacco industry.
However, analysts do not expect the conventional cigarettes to lose ground easily. Despite the growing popularity of e-cigarettes in Ukraine, conventional cigarettes remain the product of choice for the Ukrainian military and are widely consumed among service members. Cigarettes often also form part of humanitarian aid packages provided to soldiers by various volunteer organizations.
For more updates on the tobacco market in Eastern Europe, stay with 2Firsts.
(Cover image generated by AI)
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