2Firsts, January 9, 2025 — 2Firsts, a leading global nicotine industry media and advisory platform, successfully hosted “Decisive 2026 — U.S. New Tobacco MarketAnnual Review& Compliance Outlook” in Qianhai, Shenzhen. Guided by the main thread of “annual review + compliance outlook,” the event featured systematic discussions on the 2025 review of the U.S. vaping market, technical deconstructions of recently PMTA-authorized products, year-in-review coverage of major news and product developments, and capital-market perspectives.
2Firsts Co-founder and CEO Alan Zhao emphasized in his opening remarks that the United States was chosen as the focal point because the dramatic changes in the U.S. market over the past year have profoundly reshaped the global landscape, as well as the development of Shenzhen and its industrial supply chain. He noted that the term “Decisive” was used to describe this shift not only as a matter of intensified competition, but more fundamentally as a transformation of the market’s dominant paradigm—from gray-area business models toward compliance-driven and sustainable development. He added that the outcomes of this transition are expected to become even more evident by 2026.
2Firsts Co-founder Echo Guo:
“U.S. Vape Market 2025 Review”
Echo Guo delivered “U.S. Vape Market 2025 Review,” providing an in-depth analysis of how changes in the U.S. market have broader spillover effects across the vaping industry and the manufacturing value chain. She built a systematic framework to observe the evolution of the U.S. market in 2025 across multiple dimensions, including the political environment, capital investment, channel strategy, and compliance regulation.
She pointed out that U.S. market variables are influencing corporate operating decisions with greater frequency and force. In particular, the movements of U.S. investment institutions, along with policy shifts and enforcement rhythms from regulators such as the ATF and FDA, are exerting a significant impact on the industry—pushing companies to recalibrate capital expectations, channel strategies, and compliance pathways to better navigate rising compliance pressure and market challenges.
2Firsts Compliance Expert Kurt Yang:
“Technical Analysis and Insights from Recently PMTA-Authorized Products”
2Firsts compliance expert Kurt Yang presented “Technical Analysis and Insights from Recently PMTA-Authorized Products.” Using representative recently PMTA-authorized cases as entry points, he systematically broke down key pathways and technical considerations in the PMTA application processes for the e-cigarette brand JUUL and the nicotine pouch brand on! PLUS.
In a comparative analysis, Kurt further discussed differences between JUUL and ON! PLUS in their PMTA processes: JUUL completed its review after a long wait and multiple rounds of supplemental submissions; by contrast, ON! PLUS leveraged an FDA pilot program and, according to his remarks, completed its substantive review in approximately 90 days, following submission in December 2024 and authorization in September 2025, illustrating the potential efficiency advantages of an accelerated review pathway.
Interactive Discussion and Q&A:
Interpreting Key PMTA Milestones and Corporate Path Choices
The event then moved into an interactive discussion session, with Alan Zhao, Echo Guo, and Kurt Yang jointly participating to discuss and respond to the core issues raised by audience questions.
In response to a question on “what PMTA cases can teach Chinese manufacturers (especially mid-tier companies),” Kurt noted that companies participating in U.S.-market-related business may pursue three distinct orientations and pathway choices.
As the discussion continued, Kurt suggested that companies can enhance both compliance capabilities and manufacturing capabilities through direct participation in the U.S. market, providing OEM/ODM services, or supporting brands as strategic partners—thereby, to some extent, reducing PMTA failure rates and easing risk-control pressures.
Octans Capital Partner Tyler Tai:
“U.S. New Tobacco Industry Development from a Capital Perspective”
In the capital perspective module, Tyler Tai—Octans Capital Partner, ex Global Tobacco & Cannabis Research Analyst at Barclays Investment Bank—shared “U.S. New Tobacco Industry Development from a Capital Perspective” via a “recorded video + live connection.” He provided an overview of the tobacco capital markets and, in particular, analyzed key drivers and structural opportunities across cycles from the vantage point of capital interacting with macro variables.
Building on supply-chain capital narratives, Tyler further discussed the “capital stories” of companies across different links of the tobacco value chain, with particular reference to the strategies of listed Chinese vaping companies and how they may leverage capital operations alongside regulatory dynamics to support development. He also emphasized the process of entering the capital markets, the importance of compliance, and the methods and principles for strategic decision-making under regulatory challenges.
2Firsts Co-founder and CEO Alan Zhao:
“2025 Annual Review of Key News Events”
In the annual information review, 2Firsts Co-founder and CEO Alan Zhao reviewed and organized the key news events of 2025, compiling nine major events and presenting the critical variables and structural shifts of the global tobacco industry over the past year through an “event chain” approach.
Alan Zhao noted that the global tobacco industry is undergoing profound change: the market’s dominant paradigm is accelerating from a gray market toward legalization and standardization. Under high-intensity, normalized enforcement and the PMTA regulatory framework, compliance thresholds and operating requirements have risen significantly. At the same time, support and guidance for small businesses have strengthened, and compliance pathways are shifting from experience-driven to system-driven.
From a regional regulatory perspective, the EU remains divided in its stance toward vaping and harm-reduction products, with significant differences across markets in regulatory orientation and policy cadence. On the industry side, major tobacco companies continue to increase investment toward harm-reduction products, while China is also showing a trend toward strengthening tobacco regulation.
2Firsts Product Editor Carrie Cai:
2025 Annual Product News Review
2Firsts product editor Carrie Cai delivered a “2025 Annual Product News Review.”
She explained that this review was organized from a “news” perspective rather than ranking by sales or popularity, focusing instead on product dynamics that reflect structural changes—thereby revealing a fundamental shift in how competition is taking shape in the new tobacco industry.
Carrie observed that multiple product news developments in 2025 point to a more “systemized” era of competition. On one hand, heated tobacco devices are evolving from simple tools into comprehensive systems that include experience management, shifting the core of competition from point features toward controllability and manageability of overall experience. On the other hand, nicotine-containing products are emerging as a distinct category, signaling maturity and differentiation as consumer goods.
Meanwhile, the trend toward digitalized endpoints is accelerating, with AI and algorithms increasingly shaping product attributes and user experience. Together, these product signals sketch a new competitive landscape for the new tobacco industry—centered on controllable experience, system-level management, and technology integration.
At the conclusion of the event, Alan Zhao shared “2Firsts PMTA Service Cases and Countermeasure Recommendations.” Using case studies and strategy summaries, he outlined key stages and response approaches in PMTA service practice, emphasizing process-based and system-based methods to improve the efficiency and certainty of compliance advancement. He also translated service experience into actionable countermeasure recommendations to address the practical concerns enterprises face in advancing compliance in the U.S. market.
Overall, “Decisive 2026” formed a closed loop of forming a closed-loop framework spanning market review, technical deconstruction, annual insights, interactive discussion, product and news analysis, capital perspectives, and compliance strategies integrating annual retrospectives, extraction of key signals, and compliance execution recommendations into a unified discussion framework.
Participants generally noted that the event delivered high information density and a clear structure. They highlighted the year-in-review market analysis, the technical examination of PMTA-authorized products, and the compliance service countermeasure recommendations as especially valuable—providing a more referential thinking framework and practical pathway guidance for companies formulating U.S.-market strategies for the year ahead.
Looking toward 2026, 2Firsts stated it will continue to advance research and exchange on U.S. market compliance, product innovation, and industry trends, further promoting deep dialogue across perspectives and roles, and providing the industry with structural insights and executable solutions.
Image production and source: 2Firsts
