Key Points
- 30%–40% of China-Europe vape air cargo relies on Middle East transit hubs.
- Europe-bound freight rates remain around RMB 30 per kg (about $4 per kg) instead of falling seasonally.
- U.S.-bound shipments have not seen material disruption so far.
- Direct flights operated by Chinese carriers remain relatively stable.
- Rising oil prices could transmit cost pressure across global routes.
- Sea freight remains commercially impractical due to extended transit times.
2Firsts, March 02, 2026, Shenzhen
As military hostilities escalate across the Middle East — including U.S.-Israel operations and Iranian retaliatory strikes — disruptions at key aviation hubs are rippling through global air cargo networks. For Chinese vape exporters, this regional volatility has effectively severed the "Silk Road of the Skies," preventing the usual post-Lunar New Year decline in freight rates and creating a stark divide between European and American supply chains.
According to logistics specialist Mr. L, roughly 30% to 40% of air cargo capacity for vape shipments from China to Europe depends on transit hubs in Doha, Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
As tensions surrounding Iran intensify, airlines including Qatar Airways (QR), Emirates (EK) and Etihad Airways (EY) face operational uncertainties that could affect transit stability and scheduling reliability.
By contrast, shipments from China to the United States, which rely less on Middle East stopovers, have not experienced material disruption so far, according to industry sources.
Direct charter services operated by Chinese carriers that avoid Middle Eastern transit points have also remained comparatively stable, Mr. L said.
Seasonal Decline in Europe Fails to Appear
In most years, freight rates on China-Europe routes drop sharply after the Lunar New Year, often falling into single-digit renminbi per kilogram.
This year, however, Europe-bound rates have held at about RMB 30 per kilogram (roughly $4 per kilogram), largely unchanged from pre-holiday levels.
“The absence of seasonal decline effectively amounts to a price increase,” Mr. L said.
Another logistics professional, Mr. J, noted that shipment volumes were subdued during the first week after the holiday but have begun recovering in the second week.
Future rate movements on Europe routes will depend on cargo volume support, he said:
- If exporters resume normal shipment volumes at around RMB 30 per kg, rates may hold.
- If volumes remain soft, downward price adjustments could follow.
Fuel Risk Could Broaden Impact
Mr. J also warned that continued instability involving Iran could lift global oil prices over the next one to two months.
Higher jet fuel costs would raise airlines’ operating expenses and could be passed on through fuel surcharges. In that scenario, even routes not transiting the Middle East—including U.S.-bound shipments—could face indirect cost pressure.
“At this stage, the disruption is concentrated on Europe-bound routes, but fuel-driven cost transmission could widen the impact,” he said.
Limited Alternatives
Vape products typically depend on air transport due to leakage risks and product stability concerns.
Meanwhile, disruptions in the Red Sea have reduced the reliability of the Suez Canal corridor. Rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope could extend Europe-bound transit times to roughly 70 days.
Under such conditions, sea freight remains commercially impractical for most exporters, reinforcing reliance on air cargo despite rising volatility.
(Cover image generated by AI)
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