Key Points
- PMI lowers full-year EPS guidance;
- Zyn faces FDA regulatory uncertainty;
- U.S. Zyn shipments fall 23.5%;
- VELO competition continues rising.
2Firsts,
June 2, 2026
According to Reuters, Philip Morris International (PMI) cut its 2026 profit forecast amid regulatory uncertainty over Zyn nicotine pouches and rising competition across tobacco products.
PMI now expects full-year adjusted earnings per share of $8.36 to $8.51, down from its previous forecast range of $8.38 to $8.53. Reuters, citing LSEG data, said the midpoint remains about four cents above analysts’ expectations.
The report said PMI is accelerating its shift away from conventional cigarettes toward smoke-free products, but its Zyn nicotine pouch business is facing regulatory delays and stronger competition in the U.S. market.
PMI Chief Financial Officer Emmanuel Babeau said a complex regulatory environment continues to slow innovation and the transition of adult smokers to smoke-free products.
Reuters previously reported that popular nicotine pouch products, including new variants such as Zyn Ultra, have not yet been cleared for sale in the United States by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The agency remains cautious about risks to potential new users, including children and teenagers.
Babeau said PMI aims to maintain Zyn’s premium positioning despite increasingly aggressive pricing from competitors.
The report said PMI is facing competition from products including British American Tobacco’s VELO. Jefferies analyst Andrei Andon-Ionita said pressure on Zyn volumes suggests continued momentum loss, contrary to consensus expectations for brand reacceleration in the second half of the year.
He said VELO is likely to benefit from Zyn’s declines.
Financially, PMI reported first-quarter revenue of $10.15 billion, above market expectations of $9.91 billion. Adjusted earnings per share reached $1.96, also above expectations of $1.83.
However, U.S. Zyn shipments fell 23.5%. The company attributed the decline mainly to distributor and retailer inventory adjustments rather than weaker consumer demand.
At the same time, shipments for PMI’s international smoke-free unit rose 11.9%, indicating continued growth outside the U.S. market.
The company also said its full-year forecast includes a small impact from the Middle East conflict, though it does not expect a prolonged effect.
Despite the profit forecast cut, PMI shares rose about 6% after the results, supported by stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings and growth in its international smoke-free business.
Industry observers said PMI’s updated guidance reflects a more competitive nicotine pouch market: Zyn remains central to the company’s smoke-free strategy, but FDA review timelines, rival pricing and channel inventory adjustments are increasingly shaping its U.S. growth outlook.
（Cover Image：ZYN）
