Company | Philip Morris CEO: Expected profit growth in 2025 will be the highest in over a decade, with ZYN US retail sales up 32%

Key points:

Full-year financial outlook: PMI reiterates its 2025 full-year diluted earnings per share (EPS) forecast at $7.24 to $7.37; expects adjusted growth of 13%-15% compared to 2024, the strongest performance since 2011 (excluding pandemic recovery). 

Q3 business updates:

·Cigarette sales in Turkey are rebounding, while the market in Egypt is performing better than expected. 

·IQOS continues to show strong growth, with VEEV and international markets' ZYN performing well. 

·ZYN sales in the US are accelerating, with a growth of approximately 32% in the first 8 weeks of Q3 (according to Nielsen data). 

Shipping expectations: ZYN shipments for the whole year are estimated to be between 800 million and 840 million cans, with growth in the second half of the year expected to align with sales performance, but taking into account distributor inventory adjustments.

2First, on September 3, 2025, according to a statement on the official website of Philip Morris International (PMI) on September 2, CEO Jacek Olczak delivered a speech at the 2025 Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference, providing an overview of the company for investors.

In the summer of 2025, our product sales, including IQOS and ZYN, were strong. Despite the increasing competition in the smoke-free products sector, we are still on track to achieve our annual adjusted diluted earnings per share growth target of 13% to 15%, the strongest growth since 2011 (excluding the recovery period during the pandemic)," he stated.

Year 2025 Annual Forecast

PMI reiterated its full-year diluted earnings per share forecast for 2025, which was announced on July 22, 2025. The forecast predicts earnings per share to be between $7.24 and $7.37. Excluding the adjustment amount of $0.19 per share for 2025, this forecast represents an increase of 13% to 15% compared to the projected earnings for 2024. Additionally, excluding the favorable impact of $0.10 per share due to currency exchange rates (calculated at current rates), this forecast represents an increase of 11.5% to 13.5% compared to the adjusted earnings per share of $6.57 for 2024, as shown in the table below.

The speech also covered the business updates as of the end of the third quarter.

Sales of combustible products in Turkey and Egypt have rebounded better than expected. IQOS continues to show strong growth. International ZYN and VEEV are performing well. Philip Morris International (PMI) reported that sales momentum of ZYN in the US remains strong, accelerating further since the second quarter, with a growth rate of around 32% in the first 8 weeks of the third quarter, according to Nielsen data. PMI had previously forecasted annual shipments of 800 million to 840 million units. Now, PMI expects shipment growth in the second half of the year to be roughly in line with sales growth, as PMI intensifies commercial activities in an increasingly competitive environment, although this will be influenced by distributor and wholesaler inventory changes, including some additional normalization in the third quarter, as restocking occurred in the first half of the year and full availability was restored.

ZYN is experiencing strong sales growth in the United States, and the full-year shipment expectations may be adjusted accordingly.

According to the announcement, sales momentum for ZYN in the US market continues to strengthen. Nielsen data shows that in the first eight weeks of the third quarter of 2025, ZYN's retail sales (offtake) increased by approximately 32% compared to the same period last year, surpassing the growth rate in the second quarter, indicating a continuous rise in end consumer demand.

Previously, PMI expected that ZYN's annual shipment volume would be between 800 million and 840 million cans. With retail sales data continuing to strengthen, PMI stated that the year-on-year growth in shipments in the second half of the year is expected to be consistent with the sales growth, reflecting the company adjusting its supply pace according to consumer dynamics to better meet market demand.

It is worth noting that PMI also mentioned that the shipment volume in the third quarter will be influenced by the dynamics of channel inventory, and it is expected that a certain degree of "inventory normalization" process will occur. This statement implies that due to channel restocking operations in the first half of the year (i.e., shipments exceeding actual sales), current inventory levels are relatively healthy. Therefore, the shipment pace in the third quarter will be closer to actual retail sales, and the growth rate may tend to stabilize or even slow down compared to the first half of the year, without the occurrence of large-scale advance stocking.

The speech will be broadcasted online in an audio-listening mode only. The live stream can be accessed through the PMI official website (www.pmi.com/2025barclays) or the PMI Investor Relations mobile app (www.pmi.com/irapp). A recorded version of the broadcast will be available for six months after the event concludes.