Smoking Rates Rise in Australia After Vape Ban, Driven by 18–24 Age Group

Key Points:

·Ban Lifted: Following the implementation of the e-cigarette ban in July 2024, the national smoking (or e-cigarette use) rate has increased from 16.8% to 17.1%, with e-cigarette use only slightly decreasing by 0.2%. 

·Rebound in the younger demographic: The smoking (or e-cigarette use) rate among individuals aged 18-24 has surged by 2.9% to reach 28%, with factory-made cigarette use increasing by 2.9% to 11.1%, and e-cigarette use rising by 1.5% to 20.5%. 

·Significant age differences: Smoking rates have decreased in most age groups above 25, remained stable in the 35-49 age group, highlighting the limited effectiveness of the policy on young people. 

·Policy reflection: The ban failed to curb overall nicotine consumption, and instead may have led some young people to turn to traditional tobacco. 

【2Firsts news flash】According to a report by Roy Morgan on July 1st, the latest data from Roy Morgan, an Australian market research company, shows that smoking rates in Australia have slightly increased since the mid-2024 implementation of the "e-cigarette sales ban", especially in factory-made cigarettes (FMC), mainly due to the rise in smoking rates among individuals aged 18-24.

A survey conducted by Roy Morgan has shown that in the year leading up to December 2024, the consumption rate of FMC, roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco, or e-cigarettes among Australians aged 18 and over decreased to 16.8% (3.59 million people). Following this, the smoking (or vaping) rate among Australians increased to 17.1% (3.70 million people), an increase of 0.3 percentage points (+110,000 people).

The factor driving this growth is the increasing consumption of factory manufactured cigarettes (FMC). Since September 2024, the proportion of Australians consuming FMC has risen from 7.9% (1.67 million people) to 8.3% (1.79 million people), an increase of 0.4 percentage points (adding 120,000 people).

On July 1, 2024, new legislation was implemented in Australia banning the import, domestic production, supply, commercial possession, and promotion of disposable and non-therapeutic e-cigarettes. However, the impact of this legislation on overall e-cigarette usage has been minimal. Currently, the e-cigarette usage rate in Australia stands at 7.5% (1.61 million), only decreasing by 0.2 percentage points (-40,000) since September 2024.

The Smoking and E-cigarette Usage Rate Among Australians Aged 18 and Above

28% of 18-24 Year Old Australians Currently smoke or Use E-cigarettes

Since the legislation banning the import, domestic manufacturing, supply, commercial holding, and advertising of disposable and non-therapeutic e-cigarettes was introduced in mid-2024, there has been an increase in smoking rates and e-cigarette use among the 18-24 age group.

In the year ending September 2024, the proportion of 18-24 year olds in Australia who smoked (or used e-cigarettes) dropped to 25.1% (620,000 people). However, this figure has since increased to 28% (700,000 people), showing a rise of 2.9 percentage points (+80,000 people). This is the highest smoking (or e-cigarette use) rate among all age groups.

Despite the introduction of new regulations, the smoking and e-cigarette usage rates among the 18-24 age group have continued to rise. Currently, over one-fifth of individuals in this age group use e-cigarettes, accounting for 20.5% (510,000 people), higher than the previous year's low of 19% (470,000 people) as of September 2024. In less than a year, this percentage has increased by 1.5 percentage points (an increase of 40,000 people). This is the highest e-cigarette usage rate among the 18-24 age group since March 2024 (20.7% or 500,000 people).

Furthermore, currently 11.1% (280,000 people) of the 18-24 age group report consuming factory-made cigarettes (FMC), which is higher than the 8.2% (200,000 people) reported in September 2024, marking an increase of 2.9 percentage points (+80,000 people).

The proportion of individuals aged 18-24 who consume roll-your-own (RYO) cigarettes has slightly increased from 7.1% (180,000 cigarettes) in the year ending September 2024 to 7.6% (190,000 cigarettes) currently, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points (+10,000 cigarettes) since mid-2024.

Smoking and E-cigarette Usage Rates Among Australians Aged 18-24 Years Old

Chief Executive Officer of Roy Morgan, Michele Levine, stated that the legislation banning the sale of disposable and non-therapeutic e-cigarettes in Australia in 2024 has had little impact on the usage of e-cigarettes, coinciding with a rise in smoking rates among young Australians.