Key Points
- Record high exports: China’s vape exports to the U.S. hit $590 million in October 2025, the highest monthly level on record and nearly double the typical range.
- Share surged: The U.S. accounted for over 50% of China’s global vape exports that month, far above the usual one-third.
- Not demand-driven: The spike resulted from tightened U.S. enforcement, logistics disruptions, and compressed replenishment, not real market expansion.
- Regulatory-driven cycle: From February seizures to June’s export collapse and September’s inland raids, exports moved in line with enforcement cycles, not consumption trends.
- Bullwhip effect amplified shipments: Channel shortages and pathway reopening triggered over-ordering and front-loaded production, pushing volumes abnormally high.
- Risks intensifying: With inventory accumulation and a new $200 million U.S. enforcement budget, volatility is likely to increase, not ease.
2Firsts, November 24, 2025——China’s vape exports to the U.S. surged to a record $590 million in October 2025—nearly double the usual monthly level and pushing the U.S. share above 50% of China’s global shipments.But the spike was not driven by demand. Instead, it reflected a temporary release created by tightened U.S. enforcement, a collapsed logistics pathway, and a bullwhip-style surge in replenishment.The peak signals more volatility ahead, not recovery.
I. An Unusual High Point
In October 2025, China’s exports of e-cigarettes to the United States surged to $590 million, the highest monthly level on record. The figure is nearly double the average monthly range of the past two to three years (around $300 million). The U.S. accounted for more than 50% of China’s global vape exports that month—far above the usual one-third share.
In both absolute value and structural proportion, October stands out as an anomaly. But this “bright spot” masks a far more complex reality. The surge was not driven by an improvement in underlying demand. Instead, it reflected a short-term release shaped by misaligned enforcement, logistics constraints, and inventory behavior on both sides of the supply chain.
II. February–June: Enforcement Tightens, Pathways Collapse, and Exports Fall Off a Cliff
The October peak traces back to the beginning of the year—when U.S. enforcement against illicit cross-border vape trade began tightening again.
In February, U.S. Customs and the FDA seized an estimated $33.8 million worth of e-cigarettes at Chicago O’Hare Airport. The action, disclosed publicly in May, signaled the start of a renewed enforcement cycle and was followed by a series of additional seizures in the months ahead.
Around the same time, U.S. regulators began sending a message through media channels: “the pathways are understood.”
A Reuters investigation reported that authorities had mapped out common routes used to bring illicit Chinese vapes into the country, including port shopping, shifting between different airports to avoid inspections. Several illicit customs-brokering services were reportedly investigated or shut down—indicating that the key nodes of cross-border flow were being dismantled.
On the logistics side, the impact was immediate. Airfreight—long the dominant mode for vape shipments—became increasingly difficult as inspection rates surged. Logistics firms widely reported that air shipments were no longer considered feasible, prompting exporters to shift to ocean freight and rely on small mixed batches of 10,000–20,000 units, rather than full containers.
This logistics pressure was the first clear signal of what would become a steep decline.
By May, China’s export data reflected the tightening conditions:exports dropped to $204 million, down nearly 40% from April’s $334 million.
In June, enforcement remained intense and the contraction deepened. Exports fell further to $106 million, a 66% year-on-year decline from the $318 million shipped in June 2024—marking the lowest monthly level since the pandemic.
Meanwhile, the U.S. market presented the mirror image of this trend: widespread shortages across distribution and retail, fully consistent with the collapse in cross-border supply.
III. After June: Enforcement Moves Inland, while a Loosened Pathway Drives a Temporary Rebound
After the June low, U.S. enforcement did not ease. Instead, it shifted from border interdiction to the domestic distribution system. Warehouses and logistics hubs across several states were inspected or hit with coordinated actions. The most consequential moment arrived in September.
In July, China’s exports began to rebound, reaching $260 million, a 146% month-on-month increase, restoring volumes to more than 85% of the previous year’s level.
On September 10, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), FDA, ATF, and U.S. Marshals jointly raided the warehouse of Midwest Goods, one of the largest vape distributors in the country. The raid was part of a multi-state enforcement wave and signaled a shift toward deeper, more structural interventions.
Around the same time, regulators disclosed a record-setting border action in Chicago:4.7 million unauthorized e-cigarette units seized, valued at $86.5 million—the largest single seizure in U.S. history.
This period revealed a clear transformation in enforcement logic:from blocking cross-border pathways to targeting domestic channel nodes.
Even so, the cross-border pathway showed signs of partial loosened operability. By late summer, certain routes became workable again despite continued high inspection pressure. This thaw was quickly reflected in trade data: China’s exports to the U.S. rose to ~$380 million in both August and September, with year-on-year gains above 33%.
These numbers represented a natural replenishment cycle after months of shortage, amplified by the temporary restoration of shipping routes.
June’s trough, the August–September rebound, and September’s enforcement peak formed three parallel narratives:
- cross-border logistics reopening in fits and starts,
- distributors replenishing long-depleted inventory,
- U.S. enforcement penetrating deeper into domestic channels.
Together, they set the stage for the tension that would explode in October.
IV. October: Enforcement Gaps and the Bullwhip Effect Drive the Record Peak
The $590 million peak in October reflected not a surge in demand, but a confluence of timing-specific factors.
That month, the U.S. federal government entered a partial shutdown, limiting the operational capacity of multiple agencies. Border inspections eased noticeably, enabling months’ worth of previously obstructed shipments to move through in a compressed window.
At the same time, the supply chain exhibited a classic bullwhip effect.
Months of regulatory-driven shortage had primed distributors to over-order once pathways reopened, while Chinese manufacturers accelerated production in response to perceived demand recovery.
These amplifying behaviors on both ends drove the export number sharply upward.
But beneath the statistical spike, the market was already flashing caution: several Chinese manufacturers reported receiving slower orders from U.S. distributors—or even short-term pauses—in late October.
The contrast between export highs and order softening suggests the market was entering a new phase of mismatch.
As noted in 2FIRSTS’ earlier report,“After the Shortage: How the U.S. Vape Market Is Rebuilding Itself”,most U.S. distributors place orders with only 10% upfront payment, paying the balance only after clearing customs and selling through inventory.
Once channel inventory builds up and triggers price compression, Chinese manufacturers and suppliers bear disproportionate risk, and some may be pushed out of the market entirely.
This dynamic is now clearly visible.
V. Conclusion: The Regulatory Cycle Is Not Over
From the border seizures in February, to the June export trough; from the inland enforcement peak in September, to the shutdown-driven spike in October—2025’s export curve reflects a classic regulation-driven cycle.
Its peaks and troughs are not shaped by demand, but by the interaction of enforcement, logistics, inventory, and replenishment behavior.
In November, immediately after the export peak, the U.S. federal budget approved a $200 million enforcement allocation for fiscal year 2026 dedicated to combating illegal e-cigarette trade. The budget outlines enhanced inter-agency cooperation and more granular enforcement measures—signaling that the next enforcement cycle will likely intensify, not weaken.
With amplified replenishment, accumulating inventory, and renewed enforcement pressure, uncertainty across the U.S.–China vape trade is deepening.
October’s $590 million shipment was the most striking point of the year—but not a turning point. It was a concentrated expression of external conditions, a peak that doubles as a warning.
For this industry, volatility is not an exception—it is the baseline.
In the coming months, enforcement rhythms, logistics shifts, and inventory adjustments will continue to dictate the pace and shape of cross-border flows.
Image source：2Firsts
*The content of this article is written after the extraction, compilation and integration of multiple information for exchange and learning purposes. The copyright of the summary information still belongs to the original article and its author. If any infringement is found, please contact us to delete it.