The Spark of Reason|
2026: A Defining Moment for the Global Next-Generation Tobacco Industry
2Firsts 2026 New Year Message
Today is January 1, 2026. As the first light of the morning rises, it illuminates a world defined by change. From here, I would like to extend my warmest New Year’s greetings to everyone across the global nicotine industry—our scientists, regulators, media partners, and nonprofit organizations—as well as to every reader and friend of 2Firsts.
2026 marks the fifth anniversary of 2Firsts. In 2022, we set out to build a news platform dedicated to this industry, firmly believing that accurate information and rational perspectives carry irreplaceable value amidst the shifting tides of transformation. Today, 2Firsts has become one of the most vital news sources for the global industry. We take deep pride in this, yet we remain clear-eyed about the gap between where we are and where we ought to be. That awareness brings a certain sense of pressure—and a profound responsibility. It is your support that gives us the confidence to press forward.
Looking ahead to 2026, we do so with genuine anticipation. This will be a milestone year—the dawn of a new era. Based on 2025 data, for the first time in the UK, the number of people using vapor products surpassed traditional smokers. Over the next five years, e-cigarettes, heated tobacco, and nicotine pouches will continue to provide harm-reduction alternatives tailored to different populations and diverse settings—each in its own unique way.
While regulatory uncertainty may persist, there are strong reasons for optimism. In the United States, the acceleration of PMTA reviews signals a structural shift in the world’s largest market, where compliant products are poised to reclaim their dominance. In the European Union, as discussions on TPD 3.0 enter a critical phase, we remain confident that a broader consensus can be reached through the weight of scientific evidence. More importantly, no market can afford to ignore the wave of harm reduction or rely on blunt bans. Regulatory frameworks grounded in science and reason are steadily returning to the core of legislation and enforcement.
2026 will also be a year of commercial triumph. We are witnessing a historic transition as international tobacco companies accelerate their evolution, and innovative new brands achieve remarkable breakthroughs. This unlocked investment value will, in turn, provide the necessary foundation for large-scale R&D and consumer education.
However, we are also clear-eyed about the challenges that remain. The illicit trade continues to threaten market order and consumer safety. The protection of minors remains an ongoing and critical responsibility. We still see simple problems being overcomplicated—where politics eclipse science. And we see complex problems being oversimplified—where the harm-reduction needs of low-income regions and the plight of vulnerable groups are ignored. Whether by complicating the simple or oversimplifying the complex, the cost remains the same: the lost opportunity to save millions of lives.
On a global scale, human society is approaching a new turning point. Artificial intelligence and robotics are reshaping the very fabric of global commerce, social structures, and individual existence. This is more than a technological shift; it is a profound transformation of our social bonds, our emotional connections, and our understanding of self.
Nicotine—a substance that has accompanied human civilization for five centuries—what role will it play in this age of AI? How can it serve humanity through even greater harm reduction? This is the ultimate question the future has set before us.
On the path toward the answer, accurate information and the spark of reason will light the way.
This is what 2Firsts has always stood for.
2026, 2Firsts looks forward to continuing this journey with you.
Alan Zhao
Co-Founder & Chief Executive Officer
Echo Guo
Co-Founder & Chief Operating Officer
January 1, 2026
