On August 9th, CITIC Securities announced on its WeChat public account that it is making a positive forecast for the global new tobacco market from June to July 2024.
The organization stated that the global new tobacco market situation from June to July 2024 was fairly positive.
- In June 2024, China's e-cigarette exports continued to show positive trends, increasing by 5.9% year-on-year to $1 billion.
- Demand for HNB products in their core market of Japan remained high, but the promotion of IQOS in the United States has been delayed until the fourth quarter of 2024. In Europe, the increase in consumption tax and the ban on flavored tobacco products may impact demand.
- In terms of traditional tobacco, cigarette production in China in the first half of 2024 showed a steady increase, up 1.6% year-on-year to 1.4 trillion sticks.
- Cigarette exports from China in June saw a significant increase of 122%, with both the volume and price of tobacco imports continuing to rise.
Additionally, risk factors to consider include:
- Macroeconomic pressures have led to weak demand for tobacco products;
- significant changes in tobacco-related policies and regulations;
- VUSE alto menthol's smooth flavor did not pass PMTA;
- alternatives to disruptive aerosol technology paths;
- inadequate enforcement efforts on illegal products.
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