Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses

Dec.05.2024
Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses
A study reveals that Denmark's proposed nicotine pouch regulations may undermine the country's progress in reducing smoking rates since 2018 and predicts that by 2030, the Danish retail industry could lose up to $85 million.

On December 4, the American Tholos Foundation announced a groundbreaking study in collaboration with IPSOS and Harvard Business School Economics that reveals the risks of Denmark's proposed regulation to limit the nicotine content in pouches to 9 milligrams per pouch.

 

A study shows that if the proposal is implemented, half (50%) of current nicotine pouch users will choose other purchasing channels, including online platforms or buying across the borders of other EU countries; one-fifth (18%) of users may switch back to smoking; the proposal also threatens Denmark's achievement of reducing smoking rates from 19% in 2018 to 14% by 2023.

 

A study has found that three-quarters (75%) of users choose nicotine pouches for health reasons, primarily to reduce or quit smoking; one-third (33%) of adults believe these products are a safer alternative to cigarettes; proposed restrictions could severely undermine strategies to reduce smoking rates.

 

According to the study, if the new regulations are implemented, the retail industry in Denmark could lose 400 million Danish kroner (approximately 57 million US dollars) by 2025, with this loss potentially increasing to 600 million Danish kroner (85 million US dollars) by 2030. It is estimated that tax revenue will decrease from 296 million Danish kroner (42 million US dollars) in 2025 to 435 million Danish kroner (62 million US dollars) in 2030.

 

More than half of Danish adults oppose the proposed restrictions on nicotine, with 80% of users believing that nicotine pouches are crucial for keeping them away from cigarettes.

 

"These findings underscore the potential for significant consequences in terms of public health," said the Tholos Foundation's Director of Consumer Issues, Tim Andrews. 

 

"The proposed nicotine limit in nicotine pouches risks reversing hard-won progress in reducing smoking while creating new challenges, including black market growth and substantial economic losses."

 

We welcome news tips, article submissions, interview requests, or comments on this piece.

Please contact us at info@2firsts.com, or reach out to Alan Zhao, CEO of 2Firsts, on LinkedIn


Notice

1.  This article is intended solely for professional research purposes related to industry, technology, and policy. Any references to brands or products are made purely for objective description and do not constitute any form of endorsement, recommendation, or promotion by 2Firsts.

2.  The use of nicotine-containing products — including, but not limited to, cigarettes, e-cigarettes, nicotine pouchand heated tobacco products — carries significant health risks. Users are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their respective jurisdictions.

3.  This article is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decisions or financial advice. 2Firsts assumes no direct or indirect liability for any inaccuracies or errors in the content.

4.  Access to this article is strictly prohibited for individuals below the legal age in their jurisdiction.

 

Copyright

 

This article is either an original work created by 2Firsts or a reproduction from third-party sources with proper attribution. All copyrights and usage rights belong to 2Firsts or the original content provider. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or any other form of unauthorized use by any individual or organization is strictly prohibited. Violators will be held legally accountable.

For copyright-related inquiries, please contact: info@2firsts.com

 

AI Assistance Disclaimer

 

This article may have been enhanced using AI tools to improve translation and editorial efficiency. However, due to technical limitations, inaccuracies may occur. Readers are encouraged to refer to the cited sources for the most accurate information.

We welcome any corrections or feedback. Please contact us at: info@2firsts.com

Australia Brings in Deloitte to Support Illicit Tobacco and Vape Enforcement Across Data, Processes and Project Delivery
Australia Brings in Deloitte to Support Illicit Tobacco and Vape Enforcement Across Data, Processes and Project Delivery
Australia’s Department of Home Affairs has hired Deloitte to provide data analytics, business-process, communications and project-delivery support to the Office of the Illicit Tobacco and E-Cigarette Commissioner. The government says Deloitte personnel do not provide policy advice to the Commissioner or the Australian government, with policy development and decision-making remaining with public officials. The arrangement has nevertheless drawn scrutiny because Deloitte has previously provided professional services to several tobacco and vaping companies.
Sep.03
China Tobacco Yunnan files patent for cellulose-free nicotine pouch scaffold to replace microcrystalline cellulose
China Tobacco Yunnan files patent for cellulose-free nicotine pouch scaffold to replace microcrystalline cellulose
China Tobacco Yunnan Industrial Co., Ltd. has filed a patent application for a cellulose-free scaffold material for nicotine pouches, proposing a combination of bioceramic material, polydextrose and sugar alcohols to replace conventional microcrystalline cellulose and cellulose derivatives. The filing aims to address issues including powdery mouthfeel, residue and limited release control, while also reducing reliance on existing cellulose-based patent portfolios. In patent examples, one fast-release formulation reached a nicotine release rate of 50% at 10 minutes and more than 90% at 20 minutes.
Sep.02
FDA Authorizes JUUL2, Cites Adult Switching Amid Efforts to Speed PMTA Reviews
FDA Authorizes JUUL2, Cites Adult Switching Amid Efforts to Speed PMTA Reviews
The FDA authorized the JUUL2 device and tobacco- and menthol-flavored pods on Aug. 28, bringing the number of authorized e-cigarette products to 48. The agency highlighted complete switching among adult smokers, with six-week switching rates reaching 28.4%–49.3% for the menthol pod. The decision comes as FDA works to speed PMTA reviews, reduce application backlogs and expand authorized e-cigarette and nicotine-pouch products while maintaining enforcement priorities for unauthorized products.
Regulations
Aug.29
Spain Cigarette Volumes Fall 5.2% in August, BAT Drops 14.5%, JTI Gains Share; France Down 8.3% on Adjusted Basis
Spain Cigarette Volumes Fall 5.2% in August, BAT Drops 14.5%, JTI Gains Share; France Down 8.3% on Adjusted Basis
Spain's cigarette volumes declined 5.2% year over year in August 2026, according to government data cited by UBS and reported by Investing.com on October 7. British American Tobacco's volumes fell 14.5%, followed by Imperial Brands at 8.8%, Philip Morris International at 6.6% and Japan Tobacco at 4.6%. JTI was the only one of the four companies to gain cigarette market share, rising six basis points to 26.7%. In France, official customs data showed an unadjusted 3.7% decline in cigarette deliveries. Adjusting for the difference in delivery days produces a decline of approximately 8.3%, consistent with the UBS figure. The bank also estimated the earnings exposure of major tobacco companies to both markets.
Market
Oct.13
Imperial Brands Sees Double-Digit NGP Growth as Sixth Year of Tobacco Revenue Gains Backs £1.5 Billion Buyback
Imperial Brands Sees Double-Digit NGP Growth as Sixth Year of Tobacco Revenue Gains Backs £1.5 Billion Buyback
Imperial Brands reaffirmed its FY26 guidance in its October 8 pre-close trading update, forecasting double-digit net revenue growth in next-generation products and share gains across heated tobacco, vape and modern oral. Tobacco net revenue is expected to grow at a low-single-digit rate, marking a sixth consecutive year of growth. The company has completed its £1.45 billion FY26 share repurchase and announced a £1.5 billion buyback for FY27. Group adjusted operating profit is expected to increase 3% to 5%, while free cash flow is forecast to exceed £2.2 billion.
Oct.09
Australia Extends Illicit Tobacco Crackdown From Tougher Penalties to Customs and Logistics Supply Chains
Australia Extends Illicit Tobacco Crackdown From Tougher Penalties to Customs and Logistics Supply Chains
Australia's federal government introduced a new illicit tobacco enforcement bill on September 10 that would strengthen evidentiary presumptions, representative sampling, seizure and forfeiture procedures, proceeds-of-crime powers and obligations for customs and logistics operators. The proposal follows the Combatting Illicit Tobacco Act 2026, which took effect in August and increased penalties while expanding investigative and asset-recovery tools. Together, the reforms extend Australia's crackdown from tougher criminal sanctions into import, logistics and evidentiary enforcement.
Sep.14