Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses

Dec.05.2024
Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses
A study reveals that Denmark's proposed nicotine pouch regulations may undermine the country's progress in reducing smoking rates since 2018 and predicts that by 2030, the Danish retail industry could lose up to $85 million.

On December 4, the American Tholos Foundation announced a groundbreaking study in collaboration with IPSOS and Harvard Business School Economics that reveals the risks of Denmark's proposed regulation to limit the nicotine content in pouches to 9 milligrams per pouch.

 

A study shows that if the proposal is implemented, half (50%) of current nicotine pouch users will choose other purchasing channels, including online platforms or buying across the borders of other EU countries; one-fifth (18%) of users may switch back to smoking; the proposal also threatens Denmark's achievement of reducing smoking rates from 19% in 2018 to 14% by 2023.

 

A study has found that three-quarters (75%) of users choose nicotine pouches for health reasons, primarily to reduce or quit smoking; one-third (33%) of adults believe these products are a safer alternative to cigarettes; proposed restrictions could severely undermine strategies to reduce smoking rates.

 

According to the study, if the new regulations are implemented, the retail industry in Denmark could lose 400 million Danish kroner (approximately 57 million US dollars) by 2025, with this loss potentially increasing to 600 million Danish kroner (85 million US dollars) by 2030. It is estimated that tax revenue will decrease from 296 million Danish kroner (42 million US dollars) in 2025 to 435 million Danish kroner (62 million US dollars) in 2030.

 

More than half of Danish adults oppose the proposed restrictions on nicotine, with 80% of users believing that nicotine pouches are crucial for keeping them away from cigarettes.

 

"These findings underscore the potential for significant consequences in terms of public health," said the Tholos Foundation's Director of Consumer Issues, Tim Andrews. 

 

"The proposed nicotine limit in nicotine pouches risks reversing hard-won progress in reducing smoking while creating new challenges, including black market growth and substantial economic losses."

 

We welcome news tips, article submissions, interview requests, or comments on this piece.

Please contact us at info@2firsts.com, or reach out to Alan Zhao, CEO of 2Firsts, on LinkedIn


Notice

1.  This article is intended solely for professional research purposes related to industry, technology, and policy. Any references to brands or products are made purely for objective description and do not constitute any form of endorsement, recommendation, or promotion by 2Firsts.

2.  The use of nicotine-containing products — including, but not limited to, cigarettes, e-cigarettes, nicotine pouchand heated tobacco products — carries significant health risks. Users are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their respective jurisdictions.

3.  This article is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decisions or financial advice. 2Firsts assumes no direct or indirect liability for any inaccuracies or errors in the content.

4.  Access to this article is strictly prohibited for individuals below the legal age in their jurisdiction.

 

Copyright

 

This article is either an original work created by 2Firsts or a reproduction from third-party sources with proper attribution. All copyrights and usage rights belong to 2Firsts or the original content provider. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or any other form of unauthorized use by any individual or organization is strictly prohibited. Violators will be held legally accountable.

For copyright-related inquiries, please contact: info@2firsts.com

 

AI Assistance Disclaimer

 

This article may have been enhanced using AI tools to improve translation and editorial efficiency. However, due to technical limitations, inaccuracies may occur. Readers are encouraged to refer to the cited sources for the most accurate information.

We welcome any corrections or feedback. Please contact us at: info@2firsts.com

China Tobacco Supply-Chain Leader Huabao’s Three-Way Transformation Takes Hold as Overseas Revenue Jumps 216%, Non-Flavor Businesses Reach 42.2% and the Company Expands Into Global Next-Generation Tobacco Supply Chains
China Tobacco Supply-Chain Leader Huabao’s Three-Way Transformation Takes Hold as Overseas Revenue Jumps 216%, Non-Flavor Businesses Reach 42.2% and the Company Expands Into Global Next-Generation Tobacco Supply Chains
Huabao’s H1 2026 results show the company advancing across three connected fronts: international expansion, entry into next-generation tobacco supply chains and diversification beyond its traditional tobacco-related base. Overseas revenue rose 216.08% to CNY 96.02 million, while non-flavor businesses reached 42.2% of total revenue. Huabao also said it had entered the supply chains of leading global tobacco customers, as its nutrition, food ingredient, fragrance and personal-care businesses gained ground in Europe, Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand. However, adjusted net profit increased only 2.78%, and next-generation tobacco revenue was not separately disclosed, showing that the transformation is reshaping revenue and customer exposure but has yet to translate fully into underlying earnings.
Aug.28
On-Site Report | CTP Details PMTA Backlog, 180-Day Review Goal and sPMTA Process
On-Site Report | CTP Details PMTA Backlog, 180-Day Review Goal and sPMTA Process
FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products detailed new PMTA review data and process changes at the 2026 FDLI conference. Pending PMTAs fell from about 450,000 at the start of 2025 to 135,000 by September 2026. CTP also discussed its 180-day review goal, current sPMTA pilot, alternate-supplier planning, more than 50,300 pending SE reports, and lessons from the nicotine pouch pilot already being applied to ENDS review.
Regulations
Oct.07
NAS 2026 | Cliff Douglas: Risk Continuum Should Play a Central Role in Tobacco Policy
NAS 2026 | Cliff Douglas: Risk Continuum Should Play a Central Role in Tobacco Policy
Cliff Douglas, a veteran U.S. tobacco-control and public health policy figure, told NAS 2026 that the “continuum of risk” should play a central role in tobacco policy. He called for clearer market pathways, stronger risk communication, differentiated regulation and enforcement, and said possible FDA reforms to PMTA reviews could be a “welcome correction” if they create a more efficient, predictable route for scientifically substantiated lower-risk products. Read 2Firsts’ on-site coverage.
Sep.26
R.J. Reynolds Vapor Company Launches Flavored Vuse Pro Pods in U.S. Without FDA Marketing Authorization
R.J. Reynolds Vapor Company Launches Flavored Vuse Pro Pods in U.S. Without FDA Marketing Authorization
R.J. Reynolds Vapor Company has begun selling four flavored Vuse Pro pods — Peach, Berry, Watermelon and Fresh Mint — in Ohio and selected other U.S. markets. According to the Vuse U.S. FAQ, Vuse Pro contains approximately 5.0% nicotine by weight, and Vuse Pro pre-filled pods are intended for use with Vuse Alto devices. Reynolds told 2Firsts that product labeling lists an e-liquid capacity of 2.0 mL per pod. The Vuse Alto Power Unit received FDA marketing authorization in 2024, while the new Vuse Pro pods themselves have not received marketing granted orders. The rollout follows the FDA’s May 2026 revision of enforcement priorities for certain unauthorized vaping products with qualifying pending applications.
BAT
Sep.10
2Firsts Compliance Solutions Hosts PMTA Briefing on FDA Review Signals After JUUL2 Authorization
2Firsts Compliance Solutions Hosts PMTA Briefing on FDA Review Signals After JUUL2 Authorization
Following recent FDA authorizations for JUUL2 and ZYN ULTRA, 2Firsts Compliance Solutions held an online PMTA briefing on Sept. 4 to examine what the decisions may signal about review efficiency, scientific evidence and U.S. market access. Nearly 30 participants from brands, manufacturers, compliance service providers and investment firms joined the discussion.
2Firsts Events
Sep.06
South Korea Extends Vape Rules to Unmanned Stores After Bringing Synthetic Nicotine Under Tobacco Law
South Korea Extends Vape Rules to Unmanned Stores After Bringing Synthetic Nicotine Under Tobacco Law
South Korea's Ministry of Gender Equality and Family said on September 14 that it plans to designate unmanned e-cigarette stores as businesses where minors are prohibited from entering or working. Operators would be required to verify customers' ages and display notices restricting access by minors. The proposal is open for public comment through October 6. The move follows an April expansion of South Korea's statutory tobacco definition that brought products made with natural or synthetic nicotine under the Tobacco Business Act. Nicotine-free liquids and products using nicotine analogues such as 6-methylnicotine, however, remain an emerging regulatory issue.
Sep.21