Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses

Dec.05.2024
Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses
A study reveals that Denmark's proposed nicotine pouch regulations may undermine the country's progress in reducing smoking rates since 2018 and predicts that by 2030, the Danish retail industry could lose up to $85 million.

On December 4, the American Tholos Foundation announced a groundbreaking study in collaboration with IPSOS and Harvard Business School Economics that reveals the risks of Denmark's proposed regulation to limit the nicotine content in pouches to 9 milligrams per pouch.

 

A study shows that if the proposal is implemented, half (50%) of current nicotine pouch users will choose other purchasing channels, including online platforms or buying across the borders of other EU countries; one-fifth (18%) of users may switch back to smoking; the proposal also threatens Denmark's achievement of reducing smoking rates from 19% in 2018 to 14% by 2023.

 

A study has found that three-quarters (75%) of users choose nicotine pouches for health reasons, primarily to reduce or quit smoking; one-third (33%) of adults believe these products are a safer alternative to cigarettes; proposed restrictions could severely undermine strategies to reduce smoking rates.

 

According to the study, if the new regulations are implemented, the retail industry in Denmark could lose 400 million Danish kroner (approximately 57 million US dollars) by 2025, with this loss potentially increasing to 600 million Danish kroner (85 million US dollars) by 2030. It is estimated that tax revenue will decrease from 296 million Danish kroner (42 million US dollars) in 2025 to 435 million Danish kroner (62 million US dollars) in 2030.

 

More than half of Danish adults oppose the proposed restrictions on nicotine, with 80% of users believing that nicotine pouches are crucial for keeping them away from cigarettes.

 

"These findings underscore the potential for significant consequences in terms of public health," said the Tholos Foundation's Director of Consumer Issues, Tim Andrews. 

 

"The proposed nicotine limit in nicotine pouches risks reversing hard-won progress in reducing smoking while creating new challenges, including black market growth and substantial economic losses."

 

We welcome news tips, article submissions, interview requests, or comments on this piece.

Please contact us at info@2firsts.com, or reach out to Alan Zhao, CEO of 2Firsts, on LinkedIn


Notice

1.  This article is intended solely for professional research purposes related to industry, technology, and policy. Any references to brands or products are made purely for objective description and do not constitute any form of endorsement, recommendation, or promotion by 2Firsts.

2.  The use of nicotine-containing products — including, but not limited to, cigarettes, e-cigarettes, nicotine pouchand heated tobacco products — carries significant health risks. Users are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their respective jurisdictions.

3.  This article is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decisions or financial advice. 2Firsts assumes no direct or indirect liability for any inaccuracies or errors in the content.

4.  Access to this article is strictly prohibited for individuals below the legal age in their jurisdiction.

 

Copyright

 

This article is either an original work created by 2Firsts or a reproduction from third-party sources with proper attribution. All copyrights and usage rights belong to 2Firsts or the original content provider. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or any other form of unauthorized use by any individual or organization is strictly prohibited. Violators will be held legally accountable.

For copyright-related inquiries, please contact: info@2firsts.com

 

AI Assistance Disclaimer

 

This article may have been enhanced using AI tools to improve translation and editorial efficiency. However, due to technical limitations, inaccuracies may occur. Readers are encouraged to refer to the cited sources for the most accurate information.

We welcome any corrections or feedback. Please contact us at: info@2firsts.com

Kantar Study Finds More Than 93% of Vape Products in Ukraine Fail Regulatory Requirements
Kantar Study Finds More Than 93% of Vape Products in Ukraine Fail Regulatory Requirements
According to Interfax-Ukraine, a study conducted by market research firm Kantar Ukraine at the request of major tobacco companies found that more than 93% of vape products in Ukraine did not fully comply with regulatory requirements. The research examined product categories, brand distribution and consumer purchasing channels, showing that pod systems and disposable vapes represent major segments of the market, while offline retail remains the dominant purchasing channel. The findings highlight ongoing compliance challenges in Ukraine’s vape market.
Aug.26
2Firsts On-Site | CTIHK Showcases Nicotine Pouches, Heated Tobacco and Chinese Cigars at InterTabac 2026
2Firsts On-Site | CTIHK Showcases Nicotine Pouches, Heated Tobacco and Chinese Cigars at InterTabac 2026
At InterTabac 2026 in Dortmund, China Tobacco International (HK) Company Limited (CTIHK) is exhibiting across two separate booths in Hall 5 and Hall 4. Products observed by 2Firsts include heated tobacco products, nicotine pouches, Chinese cigars and tobacco leaf. Nicotine pouch products on display include TOOP, Shuangxi and Ashima.
Market
Sep.16
U.S. Ninth Circuit Upholds FDA Denial of MH Global’s Flavored Vape PMTA Applications
U.S. Ninth Circuit Upholds FDA Denial of MH Global’s Flavored Vape PMTA Applications
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit upheld the FDA’s denial of MH Global LLC’s applications to market flavored electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS). The court ruled that FDA’s comparative-efficacy framework, which requires applicants to show that flavored products provide greater cessation or switching benefits than tobacco-flavored alternatives, is consistent with the Tobacco Control Act’s “appropriate for the protection of the public health” standard. The court also found that FDA was not required to establish the framework through notice-and-comment rulemaking.
Aug.26
2Firsts Interview | Cigarette Sales Fall as Smokeless Alternatives Gain in U.S. Convenience Stores, NACS Says
2Firsts Interview | Cigarette Sales Fall as Smokeless Alternatives Gain in U.S. Convenience Stores, NACS Says
Ahead of the 2026 NACS Show, 2Firsts interviewed Chris Rapanick, NACS managing director of research, on changes reshaping the U.S. convenience-store tobacco and nicotine market. NACS data show cigarette sales declining while smokeless alternatives, including nicotine pouches, continue to grow. The interview also examines higher OTP margins, shifting backbar space, weaker store traffic, regulatory uncertainty and NACS’ outlook for 2027, offering a retailer-side view of one of the world’s largest nicotine markets.
Interview
Oct.03
South Korea Vape Strategies Diverge as BAT Reconsiders Exit and PMI Takes VEEV to About 14,000 Stores
South Korea Vape Strategies Diverge as BAT Reconsiders Exit and PMI Takes VEEV to About 14,000 Stores
BAT Rothmans says it previously considered exiting South Korea's vaping market because of competitive pressure from unregulated products, but is now reassessing conditions following changes to the country's nicotine regulatory framework. Vuse and other BAT vaping products remain available through existing distribution channels. The statement followed a South Korean media report that interpreted BAT's broader withdrawal from selected Vapour markets as a full exit from South Korea. Meanwhile, Philip Morris International launched VEEV inPRIME in the country in June and began expanding distribution to around 14,000 convenience stores and other retail channels in July. The contrasting moves highlight differing investment strategies as South Korea's regulated vaping market evolves.
Aug.14
EU Trade Department Faces Scrutiny Over Contacts With Tobacco Industry
EU Trade Department Faces Scrutiny Over Contacts With Tobacco Industry
European Ombudswoman Teresa Anjinho has opened an inquiry into how the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Trade handles interactions with the tobacco industry. The case follows a complaint from a civil society organisation that alleges regular, unnecessary and non-transparent contacts between DG TRADE and tobacco industry representatives, raising questions over compliance with the EU’s obligations under the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. The inquiry remains ongoing, and the Ombudswoman has not reached any finding of maladministration.
Aug.24