Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses

Dec.05.2024
Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses
A study reveals that Denmark's proposed nicotine pouch regulations may undermine the country's progress in reducing smoking rates since 2018 and predicts that by 2030, the Danish retail industry could lose up to $85 million.

On December 4, the American Tholos Foundation announced a groundbreaking study in collaboration with IPSOS and Harvard Business School Economics that reveals the risks of Denmark's proposed regulation to limit the nicotine content in pouches to 9 milligrams per pouch.

 

A study shows that if the proposal is implemented, half (50%) of current nicotine pouch users will choose other purchasing channels, including online platforms or buying across the borders of other EU countries; one-fifth (18%) of users may switch back to smoking; the proposal also threatens Denmark's achievement of reducing smoking rates from 19% in 2018 to 14% by 2023.

 

A study has found that three-quarters (75%) of users choose nicotine pouches for health reasons, primarily to reduce or quit smoking; one-third (33%) of adults believe these products are a safer alternative to cigarettes; proposed restrictions could severely undermine strategies to reduce smoking rates.

 

According to the study, if the new regulations are implemented, the retail industry in Denmark could lose 400 million Danish kroner (approximately 57 million US dollars) by 2025, with this loss potentially increasing to 600 million Danish kroner (85 million US dollars) by 2030. It is estimated that tax revenue will decrease from 296 million Danish kroner (42 million US dollars) in 2025 to 435 million Danish kroner (62 million US dollars) in 2030.

 

More than half of Danish adults oppose the proposed restrictions on nicotine, with 80% of users believing that nicotine pouches are crucial for keeping them away from cigarettes.

 

"These findings underscore the potential for significant consequences in terms of public health," said the Tholos Foundation's Director of Consumer Issues, Tim Andrews. 

 

"The proposed nicotine limit in nicotine pouches risks reversing hard-won progress in reducing smoking while creating new challenges, including black market growth and substantial economic losses."

 

We welcome news tips, article submissions, interview requests, or comments on this piece.

Please contact us at info@2firsts.com, or reach out to Alan Zhao, CEO of 2Firsts, on LinkedIn


Notice

1.  This article is intended solely for professional research purposes related to industry, technology, and policy. Any references to brands or products are made purely for objective description and do not constitute any form of endorsement, recommendation, or promotion by 2Firsts.

2.  The use of nicotine-containing products — including, but not limited to, cigarettes, e-cigarettes, nicotine pouchand heated tobacco products — carries significant health risks. Users are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their respective jurisdictions.

3.  This article is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decisions or financial advice. 2Firsts assumes no direct or indirect liability for any inaccuracies or errors in the content.

4.  Access to this article is strictly prohibited for individuals below the legal age in their jurisdiction.

 

Copyright

 

This article is either an original work created by 2Firsts or a reproduction from third-party sources with proper attribution. All copyrights and usage rights belong to 2Firsts or the original content provider. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or any other form of unauthorized use by any individual or organization is strictly prohibited. Violators will be held legally accountable.

For copyright-related inquiries, please contact: info@2firsts.com

 

AI Assistance Disclaimer

 

This article may have been enhanced using AI tools to improve translation and editorial efficiency. However, due to technical limitations, inaccuracies may occur. Readers are encouraged to refer to the cited sources for the most accurate information.

We welcome any corrections or feedback. Please contact us at: info@2firsts.com

New Zealand Associate Health Minister Casey Costello Warns on Illicit Cigarettes as Legal Tobacco Sales Halve Over Decade
New Zealand Associate Health Minister Casey Costello Warns on Illicit Cigarettes as Legal Tobacco Sales Halve Over Decade
New Zealand Associate Health Minister Casey Costello said legal tobacco sales in the country have fallen by more than half over the past decade, with sales declining more than 20% in 2025 compared with the previous year. She warned that the decline may not fully reflect lower smoking rates, as increased availability of illicit cigarettes could also be contributing. The government said it would continue strengthening tobacco and vape retail enforcement while monitoring the impact of illicit tobacco on public health and tax revenue.
Aug.26
Product | BAT Launches glo Hyper pro+ in Japan, Upgrading the Hyper Platform With Faster Start and Smart Device Management
Product | BAT Launches glo Hyper pro+ in Japan, Upgrading the Hyper Platform With Faster Start and Smart Device Management
British American Tobacco Japan (BAT Japan) has introduced glo Hyper pro+, an upgraded device within the existing glo Hyper platform. The device adds QuickStart™ rapid heating technology, an EasyView™ display and maintenance notification features to improve daily usability. Launched in Japan on July 13, 2026, glo Hyper pro+ maintains compatibility with existing Hyper-format tobacco sticks, including neo, Lucky Strike and KENT.
Jul.30
KT&G’s Lil Strengthens Market Lead in Korea as Heated Tobacco Share Reaches 47.4%
KT&G’s Lil Strengthens Market Lead in Korea as Heated Tobacco Share Reaches 47.4%
According to South Korea’s UpKorea, KT&G’s heated tobacco brand Lil reached a 47.4% share of Korea’s heated tobacco stick market in the first quarter of 2026. The company is expanding its next-generation products (NGP) business through product development, technology investment and overseas growth. KT&G reported NGP sales of 890.1 billion won (approximately US$650 million) in 2025, up significantly from 279.3 billion won in 2020. Lil products are now available in 34 markets, while KT&G continues building its technology portfolio through patents and multiple product platforms.
Jul.23
BAT CFO Dragos Constantinescu Takes Office, Returning After Seven Years and Former Asahi Europe Leadership Role
BAT CFO Dragos Constantinescu Takes Office, Returning After Seven Years and Former Asahi Europe Leadership Role
Dragos Constantinescu has officially taken up his role as Chief Financial Officer and Executive Director at British American Tobacco (BAT). He previously spent 16 years at BAT across finance and general management roles in Europe before joining Asahi in 2019 and becoming CEO of Asahi Europe & International in 2025. His return comes as BAT continues to advance its “A Better Tomorrow” transformation.
BAT
Sep.01
Exclusive Analysis | Smoore H1 Revenue Rises 19.9% Amid Growth Concentration, Profit Pressure and Slowing Momentum
Exclusive Analysis | Smoore H1 Revenue Rises 19.9% Amid Growth Concentration, Profit Pressure and Slowing Momentum
Smoore’s first-half 2026 revenue rose 19.9%, but the results revealed growing structural risks beneath the headline growth. Heat-not-burn contributed about 61% of incremental revenue and remains driven largely by one core customer, while traditional vaping markets diverged, own-brand growth slowed and China enterprise revenue declined further. Gross profit and adjusted profit lagged revenue growth, while second-quarter revenue growth slowed to about 1.9%, putting greater focus on the quality, concentration and sustainability of Smoore’s expansion.
Capital Markets
Aug.20
DOJ Trade Fraud Task Force Tops $1 Billion in Cases, Putting Vape Supply Chains at Risk of Fraud Enforcement
DOJ Trade Fraud Task Force Tops $1 Billion in Cases, Putting Vape Supply Chains at Risk of Fraud Enforcement
According to the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), Fox News and other reports, the DOJ’s Trade Fraud Task Force (TFTF) has been linked to more than $1 billion in recoveries, penalties, forfeitures and publicly charged losses in less than one year. The task force focuses on trade fraud issues including country-of-origin fraud, illegal transshipment, false declarations and tariff evasion. While vape products are not the main source of the $1 billion figure, the industry’s reliance on global manufacturing and cross-border supply chains places it within broader U.S. trade enforcement scrutiny. The development suggests that U.S. oversight of cross-border vape products may increasingly extend beyond product authorization into import compliance, supply-chain transparency and corporate accountability.
Jul.23