Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses

Dec.05.2024
Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses
A study reveals that Denmark's proposed nicotine pouch regulations may undermine the country's progress in reducing smoking rates since 2018 and predicts that by 2030, the Danish retail industry could lose up to $85 million.

On December 4, the American Tholos Foundation announced a groundbreaking study in collaboration with IPSOS and Harvard Business School Economics that reveals the risks of Denmark's proposed regulation to limit the nicotine content in pouches to 9 milligrams per pouch.

 

A study shows that if the proposal is implemented, half (50%) of current nicotine pouch users will choose other purchasing channels, including online platforms or buying across the borders of other EU countries; one-fifth (18%) of users may switch back to smoking; the proposal also threatens Denmark's achievement of reducing smoking rates from 19% in 2018 to 14% by 2023.

 

A study has found that three-quarters (75%) of users choose nicotine pouches for health reasons, primarily to reduce or quit smoking; one-third (33%) of adults believe these products are a safer alternative to cigarettes; proposed restrictions could severely undermine strategies to reduce smoking rates.

 

According to the study, if the new regulations are implemented, the retail industry in Denmark could lose 400 million Danish kroner (approximately 57 million US dollars) by 2025, with this loss potentially increasing to 600 million Danish kroner (85 million US dollars) by 2030. It is estimated that tax revenue will decrease from 296 million Danish kroner (42 million US dollars) in 2025 to 435 million Danish kroner (62 million US dollars) in 2030.

 

More than half of Danish adults oppose the proposed restrictions on nicotine, with 80% of users believing that nicotine pouches are crucial for keeping them away from cigarettes.

 

"These findings underscore the potential for significant consequences in terms of public health," said the Tholos Foundation's Director of Consumer Issues, Tim Andrews. 

 

"The proposed nicotine limit in nicotine pouches risks reversing hard-won progress in reducing smoking while creating new challenges, including black market growth and substantial economic losses."

 

We welcome news tips, article submissions, interview requests, or comments on this piece.

Please contact us at info@2firsts.com, or reach out to Alan Zhao, CEO of 2Firsts, on LinkedIn


Notice

1.  This article is intended solely for professional research purposes related to industry, technology, and policy. Any references to brands or products are made purely for objective description and do not constitute any form of endorsement, recommendation, or promotion by 2Firsts.

2.  The use of nicotine-containing products — including, but not limited to, cigarettes, e-cigarettes, nicotine pouchand heated tobacco products — carries significant health risks. Users are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their respective jurisdictions.

3.  This article is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decisions or financial advice. 2Firsts assumes no direct or indirect liability for any inaccuracies or errors in the content.

4.  Access to this article is strictly prohibited for individuals below the legal age in their jurisdiction.

 

Copyright

 

This article is either an original work created by 2Firsts or a reproduction from third-party sources with proper attribution. All copyrights and usage rights belong to 2Firsts or the original content provider. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or any other form of unauthorized use by any individual or organization is strictly prohibited. Violators will be held legally accountable.

For copyright-related inquiries, please contact: info@2firsts.com

 

AI Assistance Disclaimer

 

This article may have been enhanced using AI tools to improve translation and editorial efficiency. However, due to technical limitations, inaccuracies may occur. Readers are encouraged to refer to the cited sources for the most accurate information.

We welcome any corrections or feedback. Please contact us at: info@2firsts.com

Los Angeles Cracks Down on Illicit Flavored Vapes and Counterfeit Goods: 12 Businesses Searched, 24 Arrested, Eight Truckloads Seized
Los Angeles Cracks Down on Illicit Flavored Vapes and Counterfeit Goods: 12 Businesses Searched, 24 Arrested, Eight Truckloads Seized
Los Angeles authorities searched 12 businesses and arrested 24 people during a multi-agency operation targeting illicit flavored vaping products, flavored cigarettes and counterfeit merchandise on October 22, 2026. The Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department said approximately eight tractor-trailer loads of merchandise were seized. Alleged violations involved flavored tobacco sales restrictions, tobacco licensing requirements and counterfeit trademark laws. Local, state and federal agencies participated. Authorities have not disclosed the number, brands or value of vaping products seized. Investigations remain ongoing.
Enforcement
Oct.28
Russia's Vape Ban Decisions Reach 17 Regions With 39 More Considering Laws, Putting Over 3,000 St. Petersburg Retail Outlets in Focus
Russia's Vape Ban Decisions Reach 17 Regions With 39 More Considering Laws, Putting Over 3,000 St. Petersburg Retail Outlets in Focus
Russia's regional vape retail restrictions are expanding. State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said on November 7 that 17 regions had adopted decisions to ban vape sales, while another 39 were preparing or considering similar legislation. On November 12, lawmakers in Leningrad Oblast and the Republic of Karelia adopted bans scheduled to begin on March 1, 2027. A day earlier, St. Petersburg unanimously approved a five-year ban proposal in its first reading. The city has 615 specialist vape shops and more than 2,400 other retail outlets selling vaping products alongside other goods. Under Federal Law No. 186-FZ, enacted in June 2026, Russian regions may prohibit retail sales of electronic nicotine delivery systems and related liquids between March 2027 and March 2032. The legislation also restricts licensed suppliers from delivering covered products to retail premises in regions where bans apply.
Regulations
Nov.13
How Investors Are Repricing the Global Tobacco Industry as Nicotine Markets Shift
How Investors Are Repricing the Global Tobacco Industry as Nicotine Markets Shift
How are investors reassessing the global tobacco industry as nicotine markets evolve? In an interview with 2Firsts, Charlie Chen, Head of Research at CCB International Securities, forecasts annual growth of 30–50% for nicotine pouches, outpacing vaping and heated tobacco. He examines how regulatory enforcement, shifting market shares and new business models are influencing company valuations. The report also explores differences between multinational tobacco groups and Chinese companies, drawing on insights from the New Approaches Summit on profitability, investment strategies and industry consolidation.
Nov.11
South Korea's Tobacco Plan Excludes 6-Methyl Nicotine as Customs Tightens Import Controls and Analog Liquid Imports Fall 83%
South Korea's Tobacco Plan Excludes 6-Methyl Nicotine as Customs Tightens Import Controls and Analog Liquid Imports Fall 83%
South Korea's government unveiled its first Tobacco Harm Management Basic Plan for 2027–2031 on October 29, 2026, proposing broader testing of vaping and heated tobacco products while excluding nicotine analogs such as 6-methyl nicotine. Synthetic nicotine came under tobacco regulation on April 24, and a June investigation found 6-methyl nicotine in 12 liquid inhalation products marketed as nicotine-free. Customs data released in September showed that imports of nicotine analog solutions fell 83.3%, from 12 metric tons in January–April to 2 metric tons in May–August. By September 20, imports had reached approximately 15 metric tons for the year, with 99.99% originating from China. Customs authorities have tightened pre-clearance testing and supply-chain documentation requirements, while the MFDS expects to complete its assessment of nicotine analog hazards by the end of 2026.
Regulations
Nov.04
Arizona Turns to a 50% Retail Vape Tax as Tobacco Tax Revenue Falls 47% From 2008
Arizona Turns to a 50% Retail Vape Tax as Tobacco Tax Revenue Falls 47% From 2008
Arizona's First Things First is pushing for an excise tax equal to 50% of the retail price of vaping products, estimating that the measure could generate about $100 million annually. The agency says its tobacco-tax revenue has fallen 47% from 2008 levels. Arizona has attempted to broaden its nicotine tax base in each of the past two years: a 2025 bill proposed a 50% wholesale-price tax, while a 2026 measure shifted to a 50% retail-price tax covering alternative nicotine products and vapor products. Separately, the state enacted HB 4001 this year to establish a new licensing and sales framework for alternative nicotine products.
Sep.21
Product | BAT Launches VELO WRKS Nicotine Pouches in Sweden, Introducing Dual-Compartment Cans With Two Flavours
Product | BAT Launches VELO WRKS Nicotine Pouches in Sweden, Introducing Dual-Compartment Cans With Two Flavours
British American Tobacco (BAT)'s VELO brand launched the VELO WRKS nicotine pouch range in Sweden on November 2, 2026. The initial release features three Dual Can variants, each containing two separate flavours in a dual-compartment container. Each can holds 20 slim pouches with 8mg of nicotine per pouch and retails for SEK 52.99. According to VELO, the first release, Drop 1, is limited to 75,000 cans and will remain available until February 2027 or while stocks last. VELO positions WRKS as a platform for testing new product concepts and has introduced an online consumer feedback survey. EU trademark records show BAT applied to register VELO WRKS in March 2026 under Class 34, covering nicotine pouches, e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products and other tobacco-related goods.
product
Nov.03