Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses

Dec.05.2024
Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses
A study reveals that Denmark's proposed nicotine pouch regulations may undermine the country's progress in reducing smoking rates since 2018 and predicts that by 2030, the Danish retail industry could lose up to $85 million.

On December 4, the American Tholos Foundation announced a groundbreaking study in collaboration with IPSOS and Harvard Business School Economics that reveals the risks of Denmark's proposed regulation to limit the nicotine content in pouches to 9 milligrams per pouch.

 

A study shows that if the proposal is implemented, half (50%) of current nicotine pouch users will choose other purchasing channels, including online platforms or buying across the borders of other EU countries; one-fifth (18%) of users may switch back to smoking; the proposal also threatens Denmark's achievement of reducing smoking rates from 19% in 2018 to 14% by 2023.

 

A study has found that three-quarters (75%) of users choose nicotine pouches for health reasons, primarily to reduce or quit smoking; one-third (33%) of adults believe these products are a safer alternative to cigarettes; proposed restrictions could severely undermine strategies to reduce smoking rates.

 

According to the study, if the new regulations are implemented, the retail industry in Denmark could lose 400 million Danish kroner (approximately 57 million US dollars) by 2025, with this loss potentially increasing to 600 million Danish kroner (85 million US dollars) by 2030. It is estimated that tax revenue will decrease from 296 million Danish kroner (42 million US dollars) in 2025 to 435 million Danish kroner (62 million US dollars) in 2030.

 

More than half of Danish adults oppose the proposed restrictions on nicotine, with 80% of users believing that nicotine pouches are crucial for keeping them away from cigarettes.

 

"These findings underscore the potential for significant consequences in terms of public health," said the Tholos Foundation's Director of Consumer Issues, Tim Andrews. 

 

"The proposed nicotine limit in nicotine pouches risks reversing hard-won progress in reducing smoking while creating new challenges, including black market growth and substantial economic losses."

 

We welcome news tips, article submissions, interview requests, or comments on this piece.

Please contact us at info@2firsts.com, or reach out to Alan Zhao, CEO of 2Firsts, on LinkedIn


Notice

1.  This article is intended solely for professional research purposes related to industry, technology, and policy. Any references to brands or products are made purely for objective description and do not constitute any form of endorsement, recommendation, or promotion by 2Firsts.

2.  The use of nicotine-containing products — including, but not limited to, cigarettes, e-cigarettes, nicotine pouchand heated tobacco products — carries significant health risks. Users are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their respective jurisdictions.

3.  This article is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decisions or financial advice. 2Firsts assumes no direct or indirect liability for any inaccuracies or errors in the content.

4.  Access to this article is strictly prohibited for individuals below the legal age in their jurisdiction.

 

Copyright

 

This article is either an original work created by 2Firsts or a reproduction from third-party sources with proper attribution. All copyrights and usage rights belong to 2Firsts or the original content provider. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or any other form of unauthorized use by any individual or organization is strictly prohibited. Violators will be held legally accountable.

For copyright-related inquiries, please contact: info@2firsts.com

 

AI Assistance Disclaimer

 

This article may have been enhanced using AI tools to improve translation and editorial efficiency. However, due to technical limitations, inaccuracies may occur. Readers are encouraged to refer to the cited sources for the most accurate information.

We welcome any corrections or feedback. Please contact us at: info@2firsts.com

Product | Four CrossBar 20K 13mL High-Puff Vapes Listed on Pennsylvania's ENDS Directory, Rated for Up to 20,000 Puffs
Product | Four CrossBar 20K 13mL High-Puff Vapes Listed on Pennsylvania's ENDS Directory, Rated for Up to 20,000 Puffs
Four CrossBar 20K disposable e-cigarettes appeared on Pennsylvania's 163-entry ENDS directory ahead of enforcement beginning October 19, 2026. The devices feature 13mL e-liquid reservoirs, 50mg/mL nicotine, 2,000mAh batteries and 0.9Ω mesh coils, with advertised puff counts of up to 20,000. CrossBar was the only modern high-puff disposable series among the directory's 15 disposable entries. Its packaging emphasizes New York design and Japanese-origin flavoring, while historical CrossBar records identify a registered U.S. tobacco manufacturing-related establishment. The link between the newer 13mL devices and earlier 1.3mL PMTA filings remains unconfirmed.
product
Oct.26
Special Report | Can Nicotine Be Replaced? 6-MN Is Already on the Market While Key Human Evidence Is Still Missing
Special Report | Can Nicotine Be Replaced? 6-MN Is Already on the Market While Key Human Evidence Is Still Missing
Nicotine analogues such as 6-methylnicotine are already appearing in e-cigarettes and oral pouches, even as key human evidence remains limited. A new Nixodine-S study adds nonclinical data showing differences from nicotine in cytotoxicity and receptor activity, while independent studies point to a more complex toxicological picture. With supply-chain activity growing and FDA seeking clearer authority over nicotine analogues, the industry now faces a larger question: what evidence is needed before these substances can credibly replace nicotine?
SCIENCE
Sep.23
Special Report|Virginia Vape Directory Shows Contrast Between Vuse and JUUL Pod Systems and CrossBar 20K, Loon Flavored Disposables
Special Report|Virginia Vape Directory Shows Contrast Between Vuse and JUUL Pod Systems and CrossBar 20K, Loon Flavored Disposables
A 2Firsts analysis of Virginia's liquid nicotine and vapor product certification directory identified 213 product records from 15 manufacturers. Companies associated with BAT, Altria, Imperial Brands, JTI and JUUL account for 127 entries. The directory also includes independent brands CrossBar 20K, Loon and Breeze. CrossBar advertises a 13mL disposable capable of up to 20,000 puffs, while Loon has 16 disposable entries featuring fruit, cooling and beverage-related flavors. Of all records, 120 are labeled as under FDA PMTA review. Virginia introduced revised penalties on October 1, 2026, including a minimum first-violation civil penalty of $5,000 per unlisted product, alongside new retail tobacco permitting requirements.
Regulations
Oct.30
Indiana Halts Sales of Elf Bar, Lost Mary, MR FOG and iJOY Vapes Under Foreign-Adversary Rules; Some Products Return After Compliance Filings
Indiana Halts Sales of Elf Bar, Lost Mary, MR FOG and iJOY Vapes Under Foreign-Adversary Rules; Some Products Return After Compliance Filings
Indiana's Alcohol and Tobacco Commission (ATC) ordered tobacco certificate holders in September to remove certain vaping products marketed under Elf Bar, Lost Mary, MR FOG, iJOY and other brands from inventory under the state's foreign-adversary product law. The agency later listed 257 MR FOG products and 77 Lost Mary product entries as lawful for sale. The Lost Mary revision expressly stated that compliance evidence had been received for 20 additional products. 2Firsts compliance expert Kurt said potential filings could include e-liquid and ingredient-origin records, U.S. nicotine-analog supply-chain documentation and FDA premarket application status.
Regulations
Oct.08
NAS 2026 | Former FDA Tobacco Chief Mitch Zeller Calls for Shift From “End Game” to “End State”
NAS 2026 | Former FDA Tobacco Chief Mitch Zeller Calls for Shift From “End Game” to “End State”
At the 2026 New Approaches Summit in New York, former FDA Center for Tobacco Products Director Mitch Zeller called for the tobacco harm reduction debate to shift from the traditional “end game” toward defining a desired “end state.” He also highlighted unresolved concerns around dual use, argued that biomarkers of exposure may be more meaningful than cigarettes-per-day in assessing risk reduction, and said nicotine misperceptions remain a major barrier to public health progress.
Sep.25
Ireland Raises Nicotine Product Taxes Again as Cigarettes Gain €1 and Vape Duty Is Set to Jump 40%
Ireland Raises Nicotine Product Taxes Again as Cigarettes Gain €1 and Vape Duty Is Set to Jump 40%
Ireland has increased tobacco excise under Budget 2027 and announced a further rise in its E-liquid Products Tax. From Oct. 7, the tax burden on a pack of 20 cigarettes in the most popular price category increased by €1, with pro-rata increases on other tobacco products. The government plans to raise EPT from €0.50 to €0.70 per millilitre from Jan. 1, 2027, a 40% increase applying to both nicotine-containing and nicotine-free e-liquids. The tobacco duty increase is expected to raise about €63.1 million in a full year.
Regulations
Oct.09