Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses

Dec.05.2024
Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses
A study reveals that Denmark's proposed nicotine pouch regulations may undermine the country's progress in reducing smoking rates since 2018 and predicts that by 2030, the Danish retail industry could lose up to $85 million.

On December 4, the American Tholos Foundation announced a groundbreaking study in collaboration with IPSOS and Harvard Business School Economics that reveals the risks of Denmark's proposed regulation to limit the nicotine content in pouches to 9 milligrams per pouch.

 

A study shows that if the proposal is implemented, half (50%) of current nicotine pouch users will choose other purchasing channels, including online platforms or buying across the borders of other EU countries; one-fifth (18%) of users may switch back to smoking; the proposal also threatens Denmark's achievement of reducing smoking rates from 19% in 2018 to 14% by 2023.

 

A study has found that three-quarters (75%) of users choose nicotine pouches for health reasons, primarily to reduce or quit smoking; one-third (33%) of adults believe these products are a safer alternative to cigarettes; proposed restrictions could severely undermine strategies to reduce smoking rates.

 

According to the study, if the new regulations are implemented, the retail industry in Denmark could lose 400 million Danish kroner (approximately 57 million US dollars) by 2025, with this loss potentially increasing to 600 million Danish kroner (85 million US dollars) by 2030. It is estimated that tax revenue will decrease from 296 million Danish kroner (42 million US dollars) in 2025 to 435 million Danish kroner (62 million US dollars) in 2030.

 

More than half of Danish adults oppose the proposed restrictions on nicotine, with 80% of users believing that nicotine pouches are crucial for keeping them away from cigarettes.

 

"These findings underscore the potential for significant consequences in terms of public health," said the Tholos Foundation's Director of Consumer Issues, Tim Andrews. 

 

"The proposed nicotine limit in nicotine pouches risks reversing hard-won progress in reducing smoking while creating new challenges, including black market growth and substantial economic losses."

 

We welcome news tips, article submissions, interview requests, or comments on this piece.

Please contact us at info@2firsts.com, or reach out to Alan Zhao, CEO of 2Firsts, on LinkedIn


Notice

1.  This article is intended solely for professional research purposes related to industry, technology, and policy. Any references to brands or products are made purely for objective description and do not constitute any form of endorsement, recommendation, or promotion by 2Firsts.

2.  The use of nicotine-containing products — including, but not limited to, cigarettes, e-cigarettes, nicotine pouchand heated tobacco products — carries significant health risks. Users are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their respective jurisdictions.

3.  This article is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decisions or financial advice. 2Firsts assumes no direct or indirect liability for any inaccuracies or errors in the content.

4.  Access to this article is strictly prohibited for individuals below the legal age in their jurisdiction.

 

Copyright

 

This article is either an original work created by 2Firsts or a reproduction from third-party sources with proper attribution. All copyrights and usage rights belong to 2Firsts or the original content provider. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or any other form of unauthorized use by any individual or organization is strictly prohibited. Violators will be held legally accountable.

For copyright-related inquiries, please contact: info@2firsts.com

 

AI Assistance Disclaimer

 

This article may have been enhanced using AI tools to improve translation and editorial efficiency. However, due to technical limitations, inaccuracies may occur. Readers are encouraged to refer to the cited sources for the most accurate information.

We welcome any corrections or feedback. Please contact us at: info@2firsts.com

As FDA Reshapes PMTA Reviews and ENDS Enforcement Priorities, CTP Acting Director Bret Koplow to Keynote NATO Event for a Retail Network of 66,000-Plus Stores
As FDA Reshapes PMTA Reviews and ENDS Enforcement Priorities, CTP Acting Director Bret Koplow to Keynote NATO Event for a Retail Network of 66,000-Plus Stores
Bret Koplow, acting director of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Center for Tobacco Products, will deliver a keynote and participate in a fireside chat at the National Association of Tobacco Outlets' Sept. 29-30 conference in Washington. His appearance comes months after the FDA moved to accelerate PMTA reviews and introduced a more differentiated enforcement policy for certain unauthorized ENDS and oral nicotine pouch products. The agency also plans a public list identifying manufacturers and products it does not currently intend to prioritize for enforcement under the May guidance. NATO says its membership includes more than 66,000 retail stores, making product-status transparency and enforcement boundaries directly relevant to the retail sector.
Aug.14
Science | International Experts Propose a New Smoking Cessation Pathway, Citing Higher Quit Rates With E-Cigarettes Than Nicotine Replacement Therapy
Science | International Experts Propose a New Smoking Cessation Pathway, Citing Higher Quit Rates With E-Cigarettes Than Nicotine Replacement Therapy
A new expert paper in JAMA urges U.S. clinicians to include nicotine e-cigarettes in smoking-cessation discussions, citing higher quit rates than nicotine replacement therapy. It also stresses that products must deliver enough nicotine to replace cigarettes, dual use should be brief, and complete switching is the goal. 2Firsts argues the recommendations matter beyond clinics: public-health professionals should reassess relative risk, regulators should preserve sufficient product appeal for adult smokers, and manufacturers should focus on helping users quit cigarettes more sustainably.
SCIENCE
Aug.03 by 2Firsts Perspectives
JUUL2 Sued Within a Week of FDA Authorization as AJ Marketing Alleges Infringement of Programmable Vape Patent
JUUL2 Sued Within a Week of FDA Authorization as AJ Marketing Alleges Infringement of Programmable Vape Patent
Less than a week after JUUL2 received U.S. FDA marketing authorization on August 28, 2026, JUUL Labs was sued for patent infringement in federal court in Delaware. AJ Marketing LLC filed the complaint on September 3, alleging that both JUUL 1 and JUUL2 infringe U.S. Patent No. 8,851,068 B2. The patent covers aspects of programmable electronic vaporization devices, including controls over dose delivery, usage frequency and operating parameters. The plaintiff is seeking reasonable royalties and ongoing royalties tied to the remaining life of the patent. JUUL has not yet publicly responded to the case.
Sep.10
BAT CFO Dragos Constantinescu Takes Office, Returning After Seven Years and Former Asahi Europe Leadership Role
BAT CFO Dragos Constantinescu Takes Office, Returning After Seven Years and Former Asahi Europe Leadership Role
Dragos Constantinescu has officially taken up his role as Chief Financial Officer and Executive Director at British American Tobacco (BAT). He previously spent 16 years at BAT across finance and general management roles in Europe before joining Asahi in 2019 and becoming CEO of Asahi Europe & International in 2025. His return comes as BAT continues to advance its “A Better Tomorrow” transformation.
BAT
Sep.01
2Firsts On-Site | CTIHK Showcases Nicotine Pouches, Heated Tobacco and Chinese Cigars at InterTabac 2026
2Firsts On-Site | CTIHK Showcases Nicotine Pouches, Heated Tobacco and Chinese Cigars at InterTabac 2026
At InterTabac 2026 in Dortmund, China Tobacco International (HK) Company Limited (CTIHK) is exhibiting across two separate booths in Hall 5 and Hall 4. Products observed by 2Firsts include heated tobacco products, nicotine pouches, Chinese cigars and tobacco leaf. Nicotine pouch products on display include TOOP, Shuangxi and Ashima.
Market
Sep.16
2Firsts Data | China’s Vape-Related Exports Rise 16.5% in July 2026 as U.S.-Bound Shipments Jump 53.5%
2Firsts Data | China’s Vape-Related Exports Rise 16.5% in July 2026 as U.S.-Bound Shipments Jump 53.5%
China’s vape-related exports reached $1.047 billion in July 2026, up 16.5% year on year and the highest monthly total of the year. Growth was heavily concentrated in the U.S., where exports jumped 53.5% to $404 million and accounted for 94.9% of the overall increase. Exports to all other markets rose just 1.2%. By category, nicotine-containing non-combustible products—primarily vapes—under HS24041200 rose 24.7% and generated 95.5% of the total increase. Vape-device exports under HS85434000 fell 0.4%, while other nicotine-substitute products under HS24041990 grew 88.9% but remained comparatively small.
DATA
Aug.24