Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses

Dec.05.2024
Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses
A study reveals that Denmark's proposed nicotine pouch regulations may undermine the country's progress in reducing smoking rates since 2018 and predicts that by 2030, the Danish retail industry could lose up to $85 million.

On December 4, the American Tholos Foundation announced a groundbreaking study in collaboration with IPSOS and Harvard Business School Economics that reveals the risks of Denmark's proposed regulation to limit the nicotine content in pouches to 9 milligrams per pouch.

 

A study shows that if the proposal is implemented, half (50%) of current nicotine pouch users will choose other purchasing channels, including online platforms or buying across the borders of other EU countries; one-fifth (18%) of users may switch back to smoking; the proposal also threatens Denmark's achievement of reducing smoking rates from 19% in 2018 to 14% by 2023.

 

A study has found that three-quarters (75%) of users choose nicotine pouches for health reasons, primarily to reduce or quit smoking; one-third (33%) of adults believe these products are a safer alternative to cigarettes; proposed restrictions could severely undermine strategies to reduce smoking rates.

 

According to the study, if the new regulations are implemented, the retail industry in Denmark could lose 400 million Danish kroner (approximately 57 million US dollars) by 2025, with this loss potentially increasing to 600 million Danish kroner (85 million US dollars) by 2030. It is estimated that tax revenue will decrease from 296 million Danish kroner (42 million US dollars) in 2025 to 435 million Danish kroner (62 million US dollars) in 2030.

 

More than half of Danish adults oppose the proposed restrictions on nicotine, with 80% of users believing that nicotine pouches are crucial for keeping them away from cigarettes.

 

"These findings underscore the potential for significant consequences in terms of public health," said the Tholos Foundation's Director of Consumer Issues, Tim Andrews. 

 

"The proposed nicotine limit in nicotine pouches risks reversing hard-won progress in reducing smoking while creating new challenges, including black market growth and substantial economic losses."

 

We welcome news tips, article submissions, interview requests, or comments on this piece.

Please contact us at info@2firsts.com, or reach out to Alan Zhao, CEO of 2Firsts, on LinkedIn


Notice

1.  This article is intended solely for professional research purposes related to industry, technology, and policy. Any references to brands or products are made purely for objective description and do not constitute any form of endorsement, recommendation, or promotion by 2Firsts.

2.  The use of nicotine-containing products — including, but not limited to, cigarettes, e-cigarettes, nicotine pouchand heated tobacco products — carries significant health risks. Users are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their respective jurisdictions.

3.  This article is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decisions or financial advice. 2Firsts assumes no direct or indirect liability for any inaccuracies or errors in the content.

4.  Access to this article is strictly prohibited for individuals below the legal age in their jurisdiction.

 

Copyright

 

This article is either an original work created by 2Firsts or a reproduction from third-party sources with proper attribution. All copyrights and usage rights belong to 2Firsts or the original content provider. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or any other form of unauthorized use by any individual or organization is strictly prohibited. Violators will be held legally accountable.

For copyright-related inquiries, please contact: info@2firsts.com

 

AI Assistance Disclaimer

 

This article may have been enhanced using AI tools to improve translation and editorial efficiency. However, due to technical limitations, inaccuracies may occur. Readers are encouraged to refer to the cited sources for the most accurate information.

We welcome any corrections or feedback. Please contact us at: info@2firsts.com

How Many Nicotine Pouch Factories Does Europe Need? 2Firsts Interviews AIRSCREAM on the OEM Market
How Many Nicotine Pouch Factories Does Europe Need? 2Firsts Interviews AIRSCREAM on the OEM Market
At InterTabac 2026, nicotine pouch growth was visible not only in brands but across equipment, raw materials and OEM manufacturing. 2Firsts interviewed AIRSCREAM commercial head Steve Moore on how many pouch factories Europe may ultimately need and where manufacturers can differentiate, from formulation and flavour to pouch materials, production consistency and customer service. The category continues to expand, but questions remain over future capacity, consolidation and the long-term structure of the supply chain.
Sep.18
Australia Extends Illicit Tobacco Crackdown From Tougher Penalties to Customs and Logistics Supply Chains
Australia Extends Illicit Tobacco Crackdown From Tougher Penalties to Customs and Logistics Supply Chains
Australia's federal government introduced a new illicit tobacco enforcement bill on September 10 that would strengthen evidentiary presumptions, representative sampling, seizure and forfeiture procedures, proceeds-of-crime powers and obligations for customs and logistics operators. The proposal follows the Combatting Illicit Tobacco Act 2026, which took effect in August and increased penalties while expanding investigative and asset-recovery tools. Together, the reforms extend Australia's crackdown from tougher criminal sanctions into import, logistics and evidentiary enforcement.
Sep.14
Spain Cigarette Volumes Fall 5.2% in August, BAT Drops 14.5%, JTI Gains Share; France Down 8.3% on Adjusted Basis
Spain Cigarette Volumes Fall 5.2% in August, BAT Drops 14.5%, JTI Gains Share; France Down 8.3% on Adjusted Basis
Spain's cigarette volumes declined 5.2% year over year in August 2026, according to government data cited by UBS and reported by Investing.com on October 7. British American Tobacco's volumes fell 14.5%, followed by Imperial Brands at 8.8%, Philip Morris International at 6.6% and Japan Tobacco at 4.6%. JTI was the only one of the four companies to gain cigarette market share, rising six basis points to 26.7%. In France, official customs data showed an unadjusted 3.7% decline in cigarette deliveries. Adjusting for the difference in delivery days produces a decline of approximately 8.3%, consistent with the UBS figure. The bank also estimated the earnings exposure of major tobacco companies to both markets.
Market
Oct.13
AIR Global Starts Debt Refinancing Four Months After Nasdaq Listing With About $400 Million Notes Expected
AIR Global Starts Debt Refinancing Four Months After Nasdaq Listing With About $400 Million Notes Expected
AIR Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of AIR Global, has launched an offering of U.S. dollar-denominated senior unsecured notes, with proceeds primarily intended to repay its existing term loan and revolving credit facility. AIR has not disclosed the final size, maturity or coupon; Refinitiv, citing Moody's, reported an expected issuance of approximately $400 million and a Ba3 rating. AIR had about $412.4 million outstanding under the two bank facilities at June 30 and net debt of $344.8 million. In the first half of 2026, AIR's Al Fakher-led flavored shisha molasses business generated about 99% of company revenue, while New Growth Categories including Crown Switch produced $2.2 million in revenue and remained loss-making on an adjusted EBITDA basis.
Sep.23
Cochrane 2026 Update Adds Nine Trials, Keeps High-Certainty Finding That Nicotine E-Cigarettes Improve Quit Rates Over NRT
Cochrane 2026 Update Adds Nine Trials, Keeps High-Certainty Finding That Nicotine E-Cigarettes Improve Quit Rates Over NRT
Cochrane’s 2026 update of its living review on electronic cigarettes for smoking cessation included 80 randomized controlled trials involving 29,861 adult smokers, with nine trials added in this update. The review retained its high-certainty conclusion that nicotine e-cigarettes increase smoking cessation rates compared with nicotine replacement therapy. In absolute terms, about 10 in 100 people using nicotine e-cigarettes may quit smoking for at least six months, compared with about 6 in 100 using NRT. The review found no clear difference in serious adverse event rates between the two groups, while longer-term safety and the relative effectiveness of newer device types remain less certain.
Sep.07
Product | Philip Morris Korea Launches Two TEREA ONYX Capsule Tobacco Sticks, Expanding Portfolio to Five Lines
Product | Philip Morris Korea Launches Two TEREA ONYX Capsule Tobacco Sticks, Expanding Portfolio to Five Lines
Philip Morris Korea launched TEREA ONYX, a new tobacco stick line for IQOS ILUMA devices, on October 15, 2026. The initial products, AMANG PEARL and CALI PEARL, feature tropical-inspired flavors, Fresh Filters and capsules designed to deliver different flavor experiences before and after activation. Both are priced at KRW 4,800 per pack and are available at convenience stores nationwide and IQOS-operated stores in South Korea. The launch expands the Korean TEREA portfolio from four product lines to five, following earlier capsule tobacco stick additions in 2026.
product
Oct.23