Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses

Dec.05.2024
Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses
A study reveals that Denmark's proposed nicotine pouch regulations may undermine the country's progress in reducing smoking rates since 2018 and predicts that by 2030, the Danish retail industry could lose up to $85 million.

On December 4, the American Tholos Foundation announced a groundbreaking study in collaboration with IPSOS and Harvard Business School Economics that reveals the risks of Denmark's proposed regulation to limit the nicotine content in pouches to 9 milligrams per pouch.

 

A study shows that if the proposal is implemented, half (50%) of current nicotine pouch users will choose other purchasing channels, including online platforms or buying across the borders of other EU countries; one-fifth (18%) of users may switch back to smoking; the proposal also threatens Denmark's achievement of reducing smoking rates from 19% in 2018 to 14% by 2023.

 

A study has found that three-quarters (75%) of users choose nicotine pouches for health reasons, primarily to reduce or quit smoking; one-third (33%) of adults believe these products are a safer alternative to cigarettes; proposed restrictions could severely undermine strategies to reduce smoking rates.

 

According to the study, if the new regulations are implemented, the retail industry in Denmark could lose 400 million Danish kroner (approximately 57 million US dollars) by 2025, with this loss potentially increasing to 600 million Danish kroner (85 million US dollars) by 2030. It is estimated that tax revenue will decrease from 296 million Danish kroner (42 million US dollars) in 2025 to 435 million Danish kroner (62 million US dollars) in 2030.

 

More than half of Danish adults oppose the proposed restrictions on nicotine, with 80% of users believing that nicotine pouches are crucial for keeping them away from cigarettes.

 

"These findings underscore the potential for significant consequences in terms of public health," said the Tholos Foundation's Director of Consumer Issues, Tim Andrews. 

 

"The proposed nicotine limit in nicotine pouches risks reversing hard-won progress in reducing smoking while creating new challenges, including black market growth and substantial economic losses."

 

We welcome news tips, article submissions, interview requests, or comments on this piece.

Please contact us at info@2firsts.com, or reach out to Alan Zhao, CEO of 2Firsts, on LinkedIn


Notice

1.  This article is intended solely for professional research purposes related to industry, technology, and policy. Any references to brands or products are made purely for objective description and do not constitute any form of endorsement, recommendation, or promotion by 2Firsts.

2.  The use of nicotine-containing products — including, but not limited to, cigarettes, e-cigarettes, nicotine pouchand heated tobacco products — carries significant health risks. Users are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their respective jurisdictions.

3.  This article is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decisions or financial advice. 2Firsts assumes no direct or indirect liability for any inaccuracies or errors in the content.

4.  Access to this article is strictly prohibited for individuals below the legal age in their jurisdiction.

 

Copyright

 

This article is either an original work created by 2Firsts or a reproduction from third-party sources with proper attribution. All copyrights and usage rights belong to 2Firsts or the original content provider. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or any other form of unauthorized use by any individual or organization is strictly prohibited. Violators will be held legally accountable.

For copyright-related inquiries, please contact: info@2firsts.com

 

AI Assistance Disclaimer

 

This article may have been enhanced using AI tools to improve translation and editorial efficiency. However, due to technical limitations, inaccuracies may occur. Readers are encouraged to refer to the cited sources for the most accurate information.

We welcome any corrections or feedback. Please contact us at: info@2firsts.com

South Korea Imports 12,126 Kg of Nicotine Analogues From April to August After Bringing Synthetic Nicotine Under Tobacco Law
South Korea Imports 12,126 Kg of Nicotine Analogues From April to August After Bringing Synthetic Nicotine Under Tobacco Law
South Korea's liquid-vape market is showing changes across raw-material imports, product types and sales channels after synthetic nicotine came under the Tobacco Business Act on April 24. Customs data show nicotine-analogue imports totaled 12,126 kilograms from April through August, while synthetic-nicotine imports over the same five months totaled 231,663 kilograms, just 39.3% of the amount imported in March alone. Physical liquid-vape stores tracked in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province fell 9.9%, unmanned outlets edged higher and online sales listings increased from 27,774 to 42,437. Government testing of 105 liquid inhalation products promoted as nicotine-free separately found nicotine in 13 and 6-methylnicotine in 12.
Sep.22
FDA Unifies Tobacco Registration and Product Listing Form Across Product Categories
FDA Unifies Tobacco Registration and Product Listing Form Across Product Categories
The U.S. FDA has consolidated two tobacco establishment registration and product listing forms into a redesigned Form FDA 3741 covering all regulated product categories, including e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products and nicotine pouches. The current requirements remain limited to domestic establishments. Separately, the FDA has proposed extending registration and product listing requirements to foreign manufacturers, signaling greater regulatory attention to manufacturing entities and product-level information across the tobacco and nicotine supply chain.
FDA
Sep.30
NAS 2026 | FDA CTP Director Says PMTA Pathway Is “Predicated on Tobacco Harm Reduction”
NAS 2026 | FDA CTP Director Says PMTA Pathway Is “Predicated on Tobacco Harm Reduction”
At the 2026 New Approaches Summit in New York, FDA Center for Tobacco Products Director Bret Koplow said the PMTA pathway is “predicated on tobacco harm reduction.” He outlined four CTP priorities: youth prevention, helping adults quit or switch to lower-risk products, improving relative-risk communication, and reducing unauthorized products. Koplow also addressed flavored e-cigarettes, public risk perceptions, industry credibility and efforts to make PMTA reviews more efficient and predictable.
Sep.26
IKE Tech Launches IKE 2.0 Compliance Platform for Nicotine Products
IKE Tech Launches IKE 2.0 Compliance Platform for Nicotine Products
IKE Tech launched IKE 2.0 on September 28, initially targeting nicotine products with a platform that combines user identity verification, product authentication, configurable policy controls and data analytics. Products can be authenticated through direct device integration or NFC smart tags. IKE Tech was formed with participation from Ispire's Aspire North America, Berify and Chemular, with Ispire currently holding a 40% interest. Its age-verification component PMTA was accepted by the FDA in 2025 and remains under review. The company did not disclose customer names, commercial deployment volumes, pricing or revenue tied to IKE 2.0.
News
Sep.29 by 2Firsts Perspectives
German Bundestag Passes Tobacco Tax Hikes: Vape Liquid Duty to Reach €0.44/ml, Heated Tobacco Taxes to Rise and Cigarettes Seen Near €12 a Pack
German Bundestag Passes Tobacco Tax Hikes: Vape Liquid Duty to Reach €0.44/ml, Heated Tobacco Taxes to Rise and Cigarettes Seen Near €12 a Pack
Germany's Bundestag passed amendments to the Tobacco Tax Act on October 15, 2026, setting out annual excise tax increases from 2027 through 2030 for e-cigarette liquids, heated tobacco, cigarettes and other tobacco products. Under the Finance Committee's amended bill, duty on qualifying e-liquids will rise from €0.32/ml in 2026 to €0.44/ml in 2030, an increase of 37.5%. Heated tobacco will retain its tax calculation based on 80% of the corresponding cigarette excise duty. The average price of a 20-cigarette pack is projected to approach €12 by 2030, with some brands potentially reaching €14. The legislation is projected to generate approximately €11.8 billion in additional tax revenue over four years and remains subject to further legislative procedures.
Regulations
Oct.19
Reynolds Puts Nearly 183,000 U.S. Contracted Outlets Under Age-Verification Rules, Covering 94% of Volume — Can It Shift an Unauthorized Vape Market?
Reynolds Puts Nearly 183,000 U.S. Contracted Outlets Under Age-Verification Rules, Covering 94% of Volume — Can It Shift an Unauthorized Vape Market?
Reynolds American says nearly 183,000 U.S. retail outlets are under contract, with its Retail Marketing Plan Contract covering about 94% of company volume and requiring point-of-sale age verification. The company combines those contracts with We Card, TruAge, NACS-linked infrastructure and POS integration, while enhanced Vuse Pro retail rules add ID scanning, purchase limits and stronger underage-sales accountability. The initial Vuse Pro rollout targets about 50,000 stores. The system is taking shape as unauthorized vapor products remain dominant in parts of the U.S. market: a 2026 study estimated they accounted for 69.4% of tracked brick-and-mortar e-cigarette dollar sales in December 2025.
Special Report
Oct.15