Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses

Dec.05.2024
Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses
A study reveals that Denmark's proposed nicotine pouch regulations may undermine the country's progress in reducing smoking rates since 2018 and predicts that by 2030, the Danish retail industry could lose up to $85 million.

On December 4, the American Tholos Foundation announced a groundbreaking study in collaboration with IPSOS and Harvard Business School Economics that reveals the risks of Denmark's proposed regulation to limit the nicotine content in pouches to 9 milligrams per pouch.

 

A study shows that if the proposal is implemented, half (50%) of current nicotine pouch users will choose other purchasing channels, including online platforms or buying across the borders of other EU countries; one-fifth (18%) of users may switch back to smoking; the proposal also threatens Denmark's achievement of reducing smoking rates from 19% in 2018 to 14% by 2023.

 

A study has found that three-quarters (75%) of users choose nicotine pouches for health reasons, primarily to reduce or quit smoking; one-third (33%) of adults believe these products are a safer alternative to cigarettes; proposed restrictions could severely undermine strategies to reduce smoking rates.

 

According to the study, if the new regulations are implemented, the retail industry in Denmark could lose 400 million Danish kroner (approximately 57 million US dollars) by 2025, with this loss potentially increasing to 600 million Danish kroner (85 million US dollars) by 2030. It is estimated that tax revenue will decrease from 296 million Danish kroner (42 million US dollars) in 2025 to 435 million Danish kroner (62 million US dollars) in 2030.

 

More than half of Danish adults oppose the proposed restrictions on nicotine, with 80% of users believing that nicotine pouches are crucial for keeping them away from cigarettes.

 

"These findings underscore the potential for significant consequences in terms of public health," said the Tholos Foundation's Director of Consumer Issues, Tim Andrews. 

 

"The proposed nicotine limit in nicotine pouches risks reversing hard-won progress in reducing smoking while creating new challenges, including black market growth and substantial economic losses."

 

We welcome news tips, article submissions, interview requests, or comments on this piece.

Please contact us at info@2firsts.com, or reach out to Alan Zhao, CEO of 2Firsts, on LinkedIn


Notice

1.  This article is intended solely for professional research purposes related to industry, technology, and policy. Any references to brands or products are made purely for objective description and do not constitute any form of endorsement, recommendation, or promotion by 2Firsts.

2.  The use of nicotine-containing products — including, but not limited to, cigarettes, e-cigarettes, nicotine pouchand heated tobacco products — carries significant health risks. Users are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their respective jurisdictions.

3.  This article is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decisions or financial advice. 2Firsts assumes no direct or indirect liability for any inaccuracies or errors in the content.

4.  Access to this article is strictly prohibited for individuals below the legal age in their jurisdiction.

 

Copyright

 

This article is either an original work created by 2Firsts or a reproduction from third-party sources with proper attribution. All copyrights and usage rights belong to 2Firsts or the original content provider. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or any other form of unauthorized use by any individual or organization is strictly prohibited. Violators will be held legally accountable.

For copyright-related inquiries, please contact: info@2firsts.com

 

AI Assistance Disclaimer

 

This article may have been enhanced using AI tools to improve translation and editorial efficiency. However, due to technical limitations, inaccuracies may occur. Readers are encouraged to refer to the cited sources for the most accurate information.

We welcome any corrections or feedback. Please contact us at: info@2firsts.com

2Firsts Data | China’s Vape-Related Exports Rise 16.5% in July 2026 as U.S.-Bound Shipments Jump 53.5%
2Firsts Data | China’s Vape-Related Exports Rise 16.5% in July 2026 as U.S.-Bound Shipments Jump 53.5%
China’s vape-related exports reached $1.047 billion in July 2026, up 16.5% year on year and the highest monthly total of the year. Growth was heavily concentrated in the U.S., where exports jumped 53.5% to $404 million and accounted for 94.9% of the overall increase. Exports to all other markets rose just 1.2%. By category, nicotine-containing non-combustible products—primarily vapes—under HS24041200 rose 24.7% and generated 95.5% of the total increase. Vape-device exports under HS85434000 fell 0.4%, while other nicotine-substitute products under HS24041990 grew 88.9% but remained comparatively small.
DATA
Aug.24
UK HMRC Unveils Red and Yellow Transitional Vape Duty Stamps Ahead of October Tax Launch
UK HMRC Unveils Red and Yellow Transitional Vape Duty Stamps Ahead of October Tax Launch
HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) has released sample images of the UK’s transitional vaping duty stamps, showing red and yellow versions ahead of the new Vaping Products Duty and Vaping Duty Stamps Scheme starting on October 1, 2026. Transitional stamps contain physical security features but no digital scanning function. Approved businesses may purchase them through November 30 and affix them through December 31. HMRC has not stated that the red and yellow samples represent different product categories or tax statuses.
Regulations
Sep.02
Product | JT Launches Ploom AURA Glacier White in Japan, Expanding the Device Ecosystem Through Color and Accessories
Product | JT Launches Ploom AURA Glacier White in Japan, Expanding the Device Ecosystem Through Color and Accessories
Japan Tobacco Inc. (JT) has introduced the Ploom AURA Glacier White heated tobacco device in Japan, adding a new color option to the existing Ploom AURA lineup. The device maintains the existing SMART HEATFLOW technology and HEAT SELECT SYSTEM with four heating modes, while expanding the ecosystem through new accessories including front panels, back covers, a car holder and wireless charging covers. The product entered pre-sale in Japan on June 30, 2026, followed by broader retail availability from July 7.
Aug.03
FDA Authorizes Four More Nicotine Pouches as Review Pilot Expands Beyond Initial Decisions
FDA Authorizes Four More Nicotine Pouches as Review Pilot Expands Beyond Initial Decisions
The FDA has authorized four additional on! nicotine pouches, bringing the U.S. total to 30. The decision marks another outcome of the agency’s nicotine pouch review pilot, whose communication and review practices are now being applied more broadly across the category. It also extends Helix’s authorized portfolio from on! PLUS to the earlier on! line. Yet all FDA-authorized nicotine pouches still come from subsidiaries of PMI or Altria, underscoring how concentrated U.S. regulatory access remains.
Aug.05
BAT UK Director Tolga Kilic Says Illicit Nicotine Market Squeezes Legal Retailers Amid Rising Compliance Costs
BAT UK Director Tolga Kilic Says Illicit Nicotine Market Squeezes Legal Retailers Amid Rising Compliance Costs
UK retail publication Grocery Trader has published a viewpoint article from Tolga Kilic, Commercial Director for BAT UK & Ireland, discussing the impact of illicit nicotine products on legitimate retail channels. Kilic said illegal vapes and other illicit nicotine products create competitive pressure for compliant retailers and called for stronger market controls and supply-chain oversight. The comments come as the UK advances policies including the disposable vape ban and Vaping Products Duty, creating a more complex operating environment for legal vape retailers.
Jul.28
Product | BAT Launches glo Hyper pro+ in Japan, Upgrading the Hyper Platform With Faster Start and Smart Device Management
Product | BAT Launches glo Hyper pro+ in Japan, Upgrading the Hyper Platform With Faster Start and Smart Device Management
British American Tobacco Japan (BAT Japan) has introduced glo Hyper pro+, an upgraded device within the existing glo Hyper platform. The device adds QuickStart™ rapid heating technology, an EasyView™ display and maintenance notification features to improve daily usability. Launched in Japan on July 13, 2026, glo Hyper pro+ maintains compatibility with existing Hyper-format tobacco sticks, including neo, Lucky Strike and KENT.
Jul.30