Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses

Dec.05.2024
Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses
A study reveals that Denmark's proposed nicotine pouch regulations may undermine the country's progress in reducing smoking rates since 2018 and predicts that by 2030, the Danish retail industry could lose up to $85 million.

On December 4, the American Tholos Foundation announced a groundbreaking study in collaboration with IPSOS and Harvard Business School Economics that reveals the risks of Denmark's proposed regulation to limit the nicotine content in pouches to 9 milligrams per pouch.

 

A study shows that if the proposal is implemented, half (50%) of current nicotine pouch users will choose other purchasing channels, including online platforms or buying across the borders of other EU countries; one-fifth (18%) of users may switch back to smoking; the proposal also threatens Denmark's achievement of reducing smoking rates from 19% in 2018 to 14% by 2023.

 

A study has found that three-quarters (75%) of users choose nicotine pouches for health reasons, primarily to reduce or quit smoking; one-third (33%) of adults believe these products are a safer alternative to cigarettes; proposed restrictions could severely undermine strategies to reduce smoking rates.

 

According to the study, if the new regulations are implemented, the retail industry in Denmark could lose 400 million Danish kroner (approximately 57 million US dollars) by 2025, with this loss potentially increasing to 600 million Danish kroner (85 million US dollars) by 2030. It is estimated that tax revenue will decrease from 296 million Danish kroner (42 million US dollars) in 2025 to 435 million Danish kroner (62 million US dollars) in 2030.

 

More than half of Danish adults oppose the proposed restrictions on nicotine, with 80% of users believing that nicotine pouches are crucial for keeping them away from cigarettes.

 

"These findings underscore the potential for significant consequences in terms of public health," said the Tholos Foundation's Director of Consumer Issues, Tim Andrews. 

 

"The proposed nicotine limit in nicotine pouches risks reversing hard-won progress in reducing smoking while creating new challenges, including black market growth and substantial economic losses."

 

We welcome news tips, article submissions, interview requests, or comments on this piece.

Please contact us at info@2firsts.com, or reach out to Alan Zhao, CEO of 2Firsts, on LinkedIn


Notice

1.  This article is intended solely for professional research purposes related to industry, technology, and policy. Any references to brands or products are made purely for objective description and do not constitute any form of endorsement, recommendation, or promotion by 2Firsts.

2.  The use of nicotine-containing products — including, but not limited to, cigarettes, e-cigarettes, nicotine pouchand heated tobacco products — carries significant health risks. Users are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their respective jurisdictions.

3.  This article is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decisions or financial advice. 2Firsts assumes no direct or indirect liability for any inaccuracies or errors in the content.

4.  Access to this article is strictly prohibited for individuals below the legal age in their jurisdiction.

 

Copyright

 

This article is either an original work created by 2Firsts or a reproduction from third-party sources with proper attribution. All copyrights and usage rights belong to 2Firsts or the original content provider. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or any other form of unauthorized use by any individual or organization is strictly prohibited. Violators will be held legally accountable.

For copyright-related inquiries, please contact: info@2firsts.com

 

AI Assistance Disclaimer

 

This article may have been enhanced using AI tools to improve translation and editorial efficiency. However, due to technical limitations, inaccuracies may occur. Readers are encouraged to refer to the cited sources for the most accurate information.

We welcome any corrections or feedback. Please contact us at: info@2firsts.com

Special Report | How Capital Is Reassessing the Global Tobacco and Modern Nicotine Industry: Lessons from a New York Forum
Special Report | How Capital Is Reassessing the Global Tobacco and Modern Nicotine Industry: Lessons from a New York Forum
Capital is reassessing the global tobacco and modern nicotine industry as heated tobacco, vaping and nicotine pouches reshape demand, profitability and regulation. At the 2026 New Approaches Summit in New York, investors and analysts examined whether smoke-free growth can sustain earnings, how regulation shapes startup value, and whether shareholder engagement can be more effective than divestment. The debate points to a broader shift: tobacco transition is increasingly becoming a capital-allocation, governance and valuation question.
Capital Markets
Oct.05
Australia-China Operation Dismantles Tobacco Smuggling Network: 112 Containers, 60 Arrests and A$92 Million in Illicit Tobacco
Australia-China Operation Dismantles Tobacco Smuggling Network: 112 Containers, 60 Arrests and A$92 Million in Illicit Tobacco
According to The Maritime Executive on August 19, 2026, the Australian Border Force (ABF) and China’s Anti-Smuggling Bureau of General Administration of China Customs worked together to dismantle an international illicit tobacco smuggling network targeting Australia. According to information released by ABF on August 20, sustained information sharing and cooperation led to investigations into 112 shipping containers, with 91 found to contain illicit tobacco. Authorities seized more than 60 million cigarettes and 60 kilograms of loose-leaf tobacco, representing more than A$92 million in unpaid duties. More than 60 people suspected of involvement in the network were arrested in China.
Aug.20
Russia’s Vape Device Labeling Regime Enters Force: Registration Starts in September, Mandatory Coding in December
Russia’s Vape Device Labeling Regime Enters Force: Registration Starts in September, Mandatory Coding in December
Russia's digital labeling regime for reusable e-cigarettes and similar personal vaping devices entered its first mandatory phase in September 2026. From September 1, manufacturers, importers and other market participants must register with the national Chestny ZNAK tracking system. From December 1, newly manufactured and imported covered devices will be required to carry digital identification codes and be reported as entering circulation. Russia has also issued new operational guidance for imports, marking the transition from a voluntary pilot to phased mandatory implementation.
Sep.15
STIIIZY Redesign Fails to Escape PAX Labs Patent Import Ban as Section 337 Case Also Involves China ALD
STIIIZY Redesign Fails to Escape PAX Labs Patent Import Ban as Section 337 Case Also Involves China ALD
U.S. Customs and Border Protection ruled that STIIIZY had not shown that the redesigned cannabis-vape products covered by its latest request fall outside an ITC limited exclusion order tied to PAX Labs patents. CBP accepted some of STIIIZY’s claim-construction and non-infringement arguments, but the company did not address two additional claims in the same patent. Earlier STIIIZY redesigned cartridges and certain associated components imported with them had received separate CBP clearance.
Sep.16
PMI CEO Attends Opening of IQOS Global Flagship in Tokyo’s Ginza as 1,814 Limited ILUMA i PRIME Sets Launch
PMI CEO Attends Opening of IQOS Global Flagship in Tokyo’s Ginza as 1,814 Limited ILUMA i PRIME Sets Launch
IQOS opened its first global flagship, IQOS Flagship Ginza, in Tokyo on September 4, 2026, replacing the former IQOS Store Ginza after nearly a decade of operation. The new location expands conventional product retail into member lounges, digital experiences, art installations and brand programming. IQOS also launched a Ginza-exclusive IQOS ILUMA i PRIME set limited to 1,814 individually numbered units, priced at JPY11,980, or about US$77. PMI Sales Strategy Consultant Yuji M. later said on LinkedIn that more than 500 people had lined up from the night before the opening.
Sep.07
China’s Zhengzhou Tobacco Research Institute develops end-to-end heated tobacco analysis to trace aerosol compound origins
China’s Zhengzhou Tobacco Research Institute develops end-to-end heated tobacco analysis to trace aerosol compound origins
The Zhengzhou Tobacco Research Institute of China National Tobacco Corporation has filed a patent application for an end-to-end method to analyze the migration and transformation of chemical compounds in heated tobacco products. Using GC-Orbitrap/MS non-targeted analysis, the method compares tobacco substrate and aerosol samples to distinguish compounds transferred directly from the substrate from those newly formed during heating, while also calculating transfer rates. In an example involving nine heated tobacco products, the patent identified 17 newly formed thermal decomposition compounds and 38 transferred compounds.
Aug.13