Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses

Dec.05.2024
Danish Study Warns Proposed Nicotine Pouch Regulations Could Drive Up Smoking Rates, Economic Losses
A study reveals that Denmark's proposed nicotine pouch regulations may undermine the country's progress in reducing smoking rates since 2018 and predicts that by 2030, the Danish retail industry could lose up to $85 million.

On December 4, the American Tholos Foundation announced a groundbreaking study in collaboration with IPSOS and Harvard Business School Economics that reveals the risks of Denmark's proposed regulation to limit the nicotine content in pouches to 9 milligrams per pouch.

 

A study shows that if the proposal is implemented, half (50%) of current nicotine pouch users will choose other purchasing channels, including online platforms or buying across the borders of other EU countries; one-fifth (18%) of users may switch back to smoking; the proposal also threatens Denmark's achievement of reducing smoking rates from 19% in 2018 to 14% by 2023.

 

A study has found that three-quarters (75%) of users choose nicotine pouches for health reasons, primarily to reduce or quit smoking; one-third (33%) of adults believe these products are a safer alternative to cigarettes; proposed restrictions could severely undermine strategies to reduce smoking rates.

 

According to the study, if the new regulations are implemented, the retail industry in Denmark could lose 400 million Danish kroner (approximately 57 million US dollars) by 2025, with this loss potentially increasing to 600 million Danish kroner (85 million US dollars) by 2030. It is estimated that tax revenue will decrease from 296 million Danish kroner (42 million US dollars) in 2025 to 435 million Danish kroner (62 million US dollars) in 2030.

 

More than half of Danish adults oppose the proposed restrictions on nicotine, with 80% of users believing that nicotine pouches are crucial for keeping them away from cigarettes.

 

"These findings underscore the potential for significant consequences in terms of public health," said the Tholos Foundation's Director of Consumer Issues, Tim Andrews. 

 

"The proposed nicotine limit in nicotine pouches risks reversing hard-won progress in reducing smoking while creating new challenges, including black market growth and substantial economic losses."

 

We welcome news tips, article submissions, interview requests, or comments on this piece.

Please contact us at info@2firsts.com, or reach out to Alan Zhao, CEO of 2Firsts, on LinkedIn


Notice

1.  This article is intended solely for professional research purposes related to industry, technology, and policy. Any references to brands or products are made purely for objective description and do not constitute any form of endorsement, recommendation, or promotion by 2Firsts.

2.  The use of nicotine-containing products — including, but not limited to, cigarettes, e-cigarettes, nicotine pouchand heated tobacco products — carries significant health risks. Users are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their respective jurisdictions.

3.  This article is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decisions or financial advice. 2Firsts assumes no direct or indirect liability for any inaccuracies or errors in the content.

4.  Access to this article is strictly prohibited for individuals below the legal age in their jurisdiction.

 

Copyright

 

This article is either an original work created by 2Firsts or a reproduction from third-party sources with proper attribution. All copyrights and usage rights belong to 2Firsts or the original content provider. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or any other form of unauthorized use by any individual or organization is strictly prohibited. Violators will be held legally accountable.

For copyright-related inquiries, please contact: info@2firsts.com

 

AI Assistance Disclaimer

 

This article may have been enhanced using AI tools to improve translation and editorial efficiency. However, due to technical limitations, inaccuracies may occur. Readers are encouraged to refer to the cited sources for the most accurate information.

We welcome any corrections or feedback. Please contact us at: info@2firsts.com

Australian Coalition Taskforce Calls for 80% Tobacco Tax Cut to Combat Illicit Market
Australian Coalition Taskforce Calls for 80% Tobacco Tax Cut to Combat Illicit Market
According to SGST on August 26, 2026, Australia’s Coalition Illegal Tobacco Taskforce released a report recommending an up to 80% cut in tobacco excise to reduce the appeal of the illicit tobacco market. The report claimed organised crime groups now control about 80% of Australia’s tobacco market and argued that high excise rates have widened the price gap between legal and illegal products. The recommendation remains a policy proposal and has not been adopted by the Australian government, which said its focus remains on enforcement, compliance and additional resources.
Aug.27
Product | KT&G to Launch lil Tonino Lamborghini in South Korea, Bringing 3-Second Heat-Up to New HTP Platform
Product | KT&G to Launch lil Tonino Lamborghini in South Korea, Bringing 3-Second Heat-Up to New HTP Platform
KT&G will launch the lil Tonino Lamborghini heated tobacco device in Seoul on September 15, 2026. The product introduces a new heating technology called Flashwave Heating, which uses microwaves to heat tobacco sticks internally and delivers a manufacturer-rated heat-up time of about three seconds. The device features an all-metal aluminum body, a color display and a dedicated GUI, and launches alongside a new line of NAU tobacco sticks that are incompatible with existing lil consumables. Korean media describe the product as KT&G's first new heated tobacco platform since lil AIBLE was introduced in 2022.
Aug.31
Imperial Brands Plans Thousands of Job Cuts Across U.S. and Europe in Cost Restructuring
Imperial Brands Plans Thousands of Job Cuts Across U.S. and Europe in Cost Restructuring
According to Reuters, citing Bloomberg News, British tobacco company Imperial Brands PLC plans to cut thousands of jobs across the United States and Europe as part of a cost reduction and organizational restructuring effort. The announcement drew market attention to the company’s shares. The move comes as global tobacco companies continue adjusting their operations amid slower cigarette market growth, changing consumer preferences and the transition toward next-generation nicotine products.
Aug.11
Gallup Tracks Nicotine Pouch Use for the First Time: 11% of U.S. Adults Smoke, 9% Vape and 4% Use Nicotine Pouches
Gallup Tracks Nicotine Pouch Use for the First Time: 11% of U.S. Adults Smoke, 9% Vape and 4% Use Nicotine Pouches
Gallup’s 2026 Consumption Habits survey tracked nicotine pouch use for the first time. The survey found that 11% of U.S. adults reported smoking cigarettes in the past week, 9% reported vaping, and 4% reported using nicotine pouches. Cigarette smoking remained near Gallup’s long-term low, while adult vaping rates stayed relatively stable in recent years.
Market
Aug.25 by 2Firsts Perspectives
Switzerland Tightens Vape Checks as Only 3 of 32 Tested Products Meet New Tobacco Rules
Switzerland Tightens Vape Checks as Only 3 of 32 Tested Products Meet New Tobacco Rules
According to Swiss media outlet Blick, local authorities are strengthening compliance checks on vape products, nicotine pouches and other tobacco-related products following the implementation of Switzerland’s revised Tobacco Products Act. A Basel laboratory tested 32 disposable vapes and e-liquids, with only three meeting regulatory requirements and 21 products banned from sale. Swiss authorities are also expanding retail inspections, laboratory testing and youth purchase checks to enforce the new tobacco and nicotine product rules.
Aug.12
2Firsts Data | China’s U.S. Vape Exports Have Yet to Regain Previous Growth Momentum in H1 2026, but Hardware Grew 15.2% and 6-Methyl Nicotine-Related Products Rose 234.7%
2Firsts Data | China’s U.S. Vape Exports Have Yet to Regain Previous Growth Momentum in H1 2026, but Hardware Grew 15.2% and 6-Methyl Nicotine-Related Products Rose 234.7%
China’s vape exports to the U.S. reached approximately $1.58 billion in the first half of 2026, remaining broadly stable from a year earlier but still below previous growth momentum. 2Firsts’ analysis of China Customs data shows that the U.S. market has not simply returned to its previous trajectory after the enforcement shock and inventory-driven swings of 2025. Instead, export momentum is shifting across product categories. Vaping devices and atomization hardware increased 15.2% year over year, while 6-methyl nicotine-related and other nicotine substitute products surged 234.7%. Meanwhile, traditional nicotine-containing vaping products continued to face pressure.
Jul.22