Key Points:
- Global leaf tobacco output surged in 2025, with Brazil harvesting 648.19 million kg of flue-cured Virginia (FCV) and Zimbabwe 354.9 million kg, while Malawi’s burley crop jumped nearly 60% year-on-year.
- Despite high volumes, prices have plateaued in some markets, raising fears of oversupply and shrinking margins for growers amid global economic volatility.
- Erratic weather and droughts are reshaping yields and quality, prompting growers to adopt irrigation upgrades, sustainable practices and new agronomy techniques.
- Trials of heated tobacco in Bulgaria and growing interest in tobacco-derived nicotine for reduced-risk and therapeutic products offer niche opportunities but use less leaf than traditional cigarettes.
- With cigarette demand slowly declining, industry voices highlight recapturing the estimated 15% of global sales lost to illicit trade as a way to support legal market volumes and grower revenues.
2Firsts, September 29, 2025 (By Taco Tuinstra) - The International Tobacco Growers’ Association (ITGA) recently convened its annual general meeting in Dortmund, Germany, unveiling key insights into the global tobacco production landscape and future opportunities for growers. In a presentation to the group’s members, ITGA Manager for Tobacco Industry Analysis Ivan Genov highlighted both the challenges and innovations shaping the industry worldwide.
Record Harvests Drive Concerns of Price Pressure
The 2025 leaf tobacco production season (excluding China) was characterized by larger volumes of flue-cured Virginia (FCV) and burley tobacco, with record production in key sourcing countries. Brazil and Zimbabwe reported FCV harvests of 648.19 million kg and 354.9 million kg, respectively, while Malawi’s volume of burley jumped from 117.82 million kg in 2024 to 186.53 million kg this season. FCV volumes in India and the United States grew to 336 million kg and 127.46 million kg, respectively.
With origins such as Zimbabwe pushing for even greater production volumes next year (the government aims for an unprecedented 400 million kg), some industry representatives expressed concern about oversupply. Though production is high, prices have stagnated in key markets, putting pressure on margins at time of macroeconomic volatility.
Despite notable fluctuations in regional yields, the universal challenge remains balancing supply with global demand to mitigate oversupply pressures that risk price instability, according to Genov. China continues to be a significant player in leaf imports, underscoring dynamic shifts in trade flows that affect global markets.
Climate Change Spurs Push for Sustainable Farming
A major theme of the 2025 season is the impact of climate variability. Unpredictable rainfall patterns, droughts and temperature extremes are reshaping yields and tobacco quality worldwide. This, said Genov, has prompted an urgent emphasis on climate adaptation strategies including irrigation improvements, sustainable farming practices and innovative agronomic techniques essential for maintaining quality and yield stability.
Sustainability and governance have also gained momentum, reinforced by increasing global demand for traceability, good agricultural practices and adherence to international standards. According to Genov, these factors are critical for securing long-term market access and competitiveness in an evolving regulatory environment.
Opportunities Provided by Next-Generation Products
Genov showcased innovation through niche opportunities like heated tobacco with Philip Morris International leading experimental cultivation trials in Bulgaria. This initiative supports the firm’s global smoke-free vision while introducing modernized farming approaches that could revive European tobacco production.
He also drew attention to tobacco-derived nicotine for next-generation products responding to growing market demand for reduced-risk alternatives, therapeutic applications and sustainable supply chains.
Recapturing Illicit Volumes to Stabilize Legal Market
Despite the massive growth of new categories, grower representatives worry about the long-term implications of decreasing cigarette sales, as novel nicotine products require less leaf tobacco than traditional ones. While the global decline of cigarettes is slow, and industry watchers expect demand for leaf to remain stable until 2029, the long-term trend is unmistakably downward.
One possible way for the tobacco industry to cope with this development is by extending the reach of the legal market. As Alliance One International’s Michael Reerink pointed out during the ITGA meeting, illicit sales account for up to 15 percent of global tobacco sales. If the industry can claw back that share, he noted, it would add substantial volumes and brighten growers’ prospects.
ITGA and 2Firsts Partnership
Founded in 1984, the International Tobacco Growers’ Association (ITGA) is a non-profit organization established by representatives of tobacco growers from multiple countries worldwide. It aims to advocate for growers, balance regulatory objectives with farmers’ livelihoods, and promote sustainable agricultural practices.
2Firsts is a global leading media and consulting organization specializing in the next-generation tobacco products (NGP) sector. It is committed to connecting the global industry chain through professional reporting, in-depth research, and compliance services, advancing tobacco harm reduction (THR) and industry sustainability.
In April 2025, ITGA and 2Firsts officially signed a memorandum of understanding during the ITGA Americas Regional Meeting held in San Salvador de Jujuy, Argentina, launching a strategic partnership. Their collaboration covers four core areas, supporting global growers and facilitating cooperation and transformation between traditional and next-generation products while promoting global market communication and shared development:
● Official Media Partner: 2Firsts becomes ITGA’s official media partner, participating in and reporting on global meetings and activities to enhance industry influence.
● Co-Organizing Conferences: Both parties will jointly organize the ITGA Asia-Pacific Regional Meeting to create a high-quality dialogue platform focusing on cultivation, trends, and policy changes.
● Greater China Representative: 2Firsts serves as ITGA’s exclusive local contact representative in Greater China (Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan), facilitating deeper regional cooperation.
● Joint Research & Publications: The two will co-develop and release industry blue books and market research reports, providing authoritative insights and forward-looking analysis.
To learn more about the collaboration between ITGA and 2Firsts, click here.
