PMI's Annual Profit Forecast Declines due to Lowered Heat Tobacco Shipments

PMI by 2FIRSTS.ai
Oct.20.2023
PMI's Annual Profit Forecast Declines due to Lowered Heat Tobacco Shipments
PMI's lower-than-expected shipments of heated tobacco products dampen profit forecasts and overshadow Q3 performance, according to French media Boursorama.

According to a report from Boursorama, a French media outlet, Philip Morris International (PMI) is expecting lower than anticipated shipments of its heated tobacco products this year. This has led to disappointment in the company's upward profit forecast for the year and its underperformance in the third quarter, which exceeded expectations.


Despite playing a significant role in the global tobacco industry, PMI is currently seeking alternatives to tobacco due to the increasing stringency of tobacco regulations and decreasing demands in certain markets. PMI's heated tobacco product, IQOS, has been the company's flagship product in its transition towards tobacco alternatives. Since 2008, PMI has announced investments of over $10 billion in heated tobacco products.


Philip Morris International (PMI) announced that due to delays in its product launch in the Taiwanese market and limited growth in the Russian and Ukrainian markets, as well as uncertainty surrounding the new regulations on heated tobacco products in Europe and its impact on inventory levels, its annual shipment volume of heated tobacco products will be lower than initially projected. This contradicts the optimistic outlook on heated tobacco products that was presented by the company during its investor day in September, shifting the focus away from profit growth.


PMI has announced that its adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter were $1.67. According to data provided by LSEG, analysts had an average expectation of earnings per share of $1.61. However, due to increased cigarette prices, demand for heated tobacco products, and the rapid growth of their nicotine pouch brand Zyn, the company has raised its full-year profit forecast and has exceeded expectations in the third quarter.


We welcome news tips, article submissions, interview requests, or comments on this piece.

Please contact us at info@2firsts.com, or reach out to Alan Zhao, CEO of 2Firsts, on LinkedIn


Notice

1.  This article is intended solely for professional research purposes related to industry, technology, and policy. Any references to brands or products are made purely for objective description and do not constitute any form of endorsement, recommendation, or promotion by 2Firsts.

2.  The use of nicotine-containing products — including, but not limited to, cigarettes, e-cigarettes, nicotine pouchand heated tobacco products — carries significant health risks. Users are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their respective jurisdictions.

3.  This article is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decisions or financial advice. 2Firsts assumes no direct or indirect liability for any inaccuracies or errors in the content.

4.  Access to this article is strictly prohibited for individuals below the legal age in their jurisdiction.

 

Copyright

 

This article is either an original work created by 2Firsts or a reproduction from third-party sources with proper attribution. All copyrights and usage rights belong to 2Firsts or the original content provider. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or any other form of unauthorized use by any individual or organization is strictly prohibited. Violators will be held legally accountable.

For copyright-related inquiries, please contact: info@2firsts.com

 

AI Assistance Disclaimer

 

This article may have been enhanced using AI tools to improve translation and editorial efficiency. However, due to technical limitations, inaccuracies may occur. Readers are encouraged to refer to the cited sources for the most accurate information.

We welcome any corrections or feedback. Please contact us at: info@2firsts.com

NAS 2026 | Cliff Douglas: Risk Continuum Should Play a Central Role in Tobacco Policy
NAS 2026 | Cliff Douglas: Risk Continuum Should Play a Central Role in Tobacco Policy
Cliff Douglas, a veteran U.S. tobacco-control and public health policy figure, told NAS 2026 that the “continuum of risk” should play a central role in tobacco policy. He called for clearer market pathways, stronger risk communication, differentiated regulation and enforcement, and said possible FDA reforms to PMTA reviews could be a “welcome correction” if they create a more efficient, predictable route for scientifically substantiated lower-risk products. Read 2Firsts’ on-site coverage.
Sep.26
Indonesia's Influential Islamic Body MUI Urges Vape Permit Freeze, Raising Uncertainty for 200 Manufacturers
Indonesia's Influential Islamic Body MUI Urges Vape Permit Freeze, Raising Uncertainty for 200 Manufacturers
Indonesia's Ulema Council (MUI) published Fatwa No. 131/2026 on November 9, declaring electronic cigarette use, production and trade haram under Islamic religious rules. The council urged the Industry Ministry to prohibit the issuance of vape industry permits and review licensing policies, while calling on the president and parliament to enact a comprehensive ban. On November 10, the Constitutional Court heard a challenge to provisions of the 2023 Health Law seeking a prohibition on vape production, importation, distribution and use. The Health Ministry said on November 11 it was studying stronger restrictions, including a possible ban on circulation, while industry association APVI called for tighter oversight rather than a total ban. Indonesia's Industry Ministry previously estimated the sector comprises about 200 companies, Rp31 trillion ($1.7 billion) in cumulative investment and approximately 100,000 supply-chain jobs. No nationwide statutory ban has been enacted.
Regulations
Nov.12
Pennsylvania Vape Directory Enforcement Starts Oct. 19, Barring Retail Sales of Unlisted Products
Pennsylvania Vape Directory Enforcement Starts Oct. 19, Barring Retail Sales of Unlisted Products
Pennsylvania's Act 57 vape directory regime will reach the end of its 120-day inventory transition period on Oct. 19. Nicotine-containing e-cigarettes intended for retail sale in the state that are not listed on the Attorney General's ENDS directory will then be barred from retail sale and treated as contraband subject to seizure, forfeiture and destruction. Manufacturers face annual product certification, brand- and style-based fees and a minimum $50,000 surety bond, while retailers and wholesalers must source through licensed channels and monitor the directory.
Regulations
Oct.08
Japan Survey Finds 49.5% Would Cut Tobacco Use if Prices Rise, 64.6% Show Interest in Nicotine-Free Alternatives
Japan Survey Finds 49.5% Would Cut Tobacco Use if Prices Rise, 64.6% Show Interest in Nicotine-Free Alternatives
A September online survey commissioned by Japanese smoking-accessories company Lightec found that 49.5% of respondents would consider reducing tobacco use if prices rose further, while 25.1% would consider switching to cheaper brands and 14.5% would consider using or combining alternatives such as vapes and nicotine-free herbal sticks. Another 64.6% expressed some level of interest in such alternatives. The survey covered 1,088 respondents aged 20 to 70 and was conducted by a company that sells NICOLESS nicotine-free vaping and herbal-stick products, meaning its findings should not be treated as representative of Japan's smoking population.
DATA
Oct.12
South Korea Imports 12,126 Kg of Nicotine Analogues From April to August After Bringing Synthetic Nicotine Under Tobacco Law
South Korea Imports 12,126 Kg of Nicotine Analogues From April to August After Bringing Synthetic Nicotine Under Tobacco Law
South Korea's liquid-vape market is showing changes across raw-material imports, product types and sales channels after synthetic nicotine came under the Tobacco Business Act on April 24. Customs data show nicotine-analogue imports totaled 12,126 kilograms from April through August, while synthetic-nicotine imports over the same five months totaled 231,663 kilograms, just 39.3% of the amount imported in March alone. Physical liquid-vape stores tracked in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province fell 9.9%, unmanned outlets edged higher and online sales listings increased from 27,774 to 42,437. Government testing of 105 liquid inhalation products promoted as nicotine-free separately found nicotine in 13 and 6-methylnicotine in 12.
Sep.22
IVG Parent Secures HMRC Excise Warehouse and Duty Stamp Approvals Ahead of UK Vape Tax
IVG Parent Secures HMRC Excise Warehouse and Duty Stamp Approvals Ahead of UK Vape Tax
Acme Vape Ltd, the company behind UK vaping brand IVG, has received HM Revenue & Customs approval to operate an excise warehouse for vaping products and participate in the Vaping Duty Stamps Scheme. The UK's Vaping Products Duty will take effect on October 1, 2026, at a flat rate of £2.20 per 10ml of vaping liquid. Acme Vape Ltd says its approved warehouse in Preston will become operational under the new regime on the same date.
Regulations
Sep.18 by 2Firsts Perspectives