PMI's Annual Profit Forecast Declines due to Lowered Heat Tobacco Shipments

PMI by 2FIRSTS.ai
Oct.20.2023
PMI's Annual Profit Forecast Declines due to Lowered Heat Tobacco Shipments
PMI's lower-than-expected shipments of heated tobacco products dampen profit forecasts and overshadow Q3 performance, according to French media Boursorama.

According to a report from Boursorama, a French media outlet, Philip Morris International (PMI) is expecting lower than anticipated shipments of its heated tobacco products this year. This has led to disappointment in the company's upward profit forecast for the year and its underperformance in the third quarter, which exceeded expectations.


Despite playing a significant role in the global tobacco industry, PMI is currently seeking alternatives to tobacco due to the increasing stringency of tobacco regulations and decreasing demands in certain markets. PMI's heated tobacco product, IQOS, has been the company's flagship product in its transition towards tobacco alternatives. Since 2008, PMI has announced investments of over $10 billion in heated tobacco products.


Philip Morris International (PMI) announced that due to delays in its product launch in the Taiwanese market and limited growth in the Russian and Ukrainian markets, as well as uncertainty surrounding the new regulations on heated tobacco products in Europe and its impact on inventory levels, its annual shipment volume of heated tobacco products will be lower than initially projected. This contradicts the optimistic outlook on heated tobacco products that was presented by the company during its investor day in September, shifting the focus away from profit growth.


PMI has announced that its adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter were $1.67. According to data provided by LSEG, analysts had an average expectation of earnings per share of $1.61. However, due to increased cigarette prices, demand for heated tobacco products, and the rapid growth of their nicotine pouch brand Zyn, the company has raised its full-year profit forecast and has exceeded expectations in the third quarter.


We welcome news tips, article submissions, interview requests, or comments on this piece.

Please contact us at info@2firsts.com, or reach out to Alan Zhao, CEO of 2Firsts, on LinkedIn


Notice

1.  This article is intended solely for professional research purposes related to industry, technology, and policy. Any references to brands or products are made purely for objective description and do not constitute any form of endorsement, recommendation, or promotion by 2Firsts.

2.  The use of nicotine-containing products — including, but not limited to, cigarettes, e-cigarettes, nicotine pouchand heated tobacco products — carries significant health risks. Users are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their respective jurisdictions.

3.  This article is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decisions or financial advice. 2Firsts assumes no direct or indirect liability for any inaccuracies or errors in the content.

4.  Access to this article is strictly prohibited for individuals below the legal age in their jurisdiction.

 

Copyright

 

This article is either an original work created by 2Firsts or a reproduction from third-party sources with proper attribution. All copyrights and usage rights belong to 2Firsts or the original content provider. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or any other form of unauthorized use by any individual or organization is strictly prohibited. Violators will be held legally accountable.

For copyright-related inquiries, please contact: info@2firsts.com

 

AI Assistance Disclaimer

 

This article may have been enhanced using AI tools to improve translation and editorial efficiency. However, due to technical limitations, inaccuracies may occur. Readers are encouraged to refer to the cited sources for the most accurate information.

We welcome any corrections or feedback. Please contact us at: info@2firsts.com

Germany's Four-Year Tobacco Tax Plan Heads to Parliament as BAT, JTI and PMI Push for Changes
Germany's Four-Year Tobacco Tax Plan Heads to Parliament as BAT, JTI and PMI Push for Changes
Germany's parliament is scheduled to hold a first reading of amendments to the Tobacco Tax Act on September 24. The government plans annual tax increases from 2027 through 2030 covering cigarettes, heated tobacco, vaping liquids and other categories. It expects the reform to generate €756 million in additional revenue in 2027, rising to €3.589 billion in additional annual revenue by 2030. Ahead of the parliamentary debate, the German Association of the Tobacco Industry and Novel Products, or BVTE, launched the "Tabaksteuer mit Augenmaß" campaign backed by BAT, JTI, Philip Morris, Reemtsma and wholesale and retail groups.
Sep.23
Pennsylvania Vape Directory Law Survives Court Challenge From Nova Distro and Others Amid Similar Rulings Across States
Pennsylvania Vape Directory Law Survives Court Challenge From Nova Distro and Others Amid Similar Rulings Across States
A U.S. federal court upheld Pennsylvania's vape directory law on October 14, rejecting a challenge brought by Nova Distro, 101 Distributors and companies operating Tobacco Hut retail stores. Court records show that vaping accounts for about 60% of Tobacco Hut's profits and that the chain held approximately $2 million in inventory potentially subject to seizure under the law as of June 2. Pennsylvania began enforcement on October 19. The ruling follows similar appellate decisions in other states, even as new research shows that unlisted vaping products continue to account for substantial sales in states with established directories.
Regulations
Oct.22
Spain Cigarette Volumes Fall 5.2% in August, BAT Drops 14.5%, JTI Gains Share; France Down 8.3% on Adjusted Basis
Spain Cigarette Volumes Fall 5.2% in August, BAT Drops 14.5%, JTI Gains Share; France Down 8.3% on Adjusted Basis
Spain's cigarette volumes declined 5.2% year over year in August 2026, according to government data cited by UBS and reported by Investing.com on October 7. British American Tobacco's volumes fell 14.5%, followed by Imperial Brands at 8.8%, Philip Morris International at 6.6% and Japan Tobacco at 4.6%. JTI was the only one of the four companies to gain cigarette market share, rising six basis points to 26.7%. In France, official customs data showed an unadjusted 3.7% decline in cigarette deliveries. Adjusting for the difference in delivery days produces a decline of approximately 8.3%, consistent with the UBS figure. The bank also estimated the earnings exposure of major tobacco companies to both markets.
Market
Oct.13
JTI Proposes 25-Cent Irish Cigarette Tax Increase, Says It Could Raise €45 Million
JTI Proposes 25-Cent Irish Cigarette Tax Increase, Says It Could Raise €45 Million
Japan Tobacco International's Irish business has proposed a €0.25 tax increase on a pack of 20 cigarettes in its pre-Budget 2027 submission, below the €0.50-or-more increases typically imposed in recent Irish budgets. JTI says the proposal could generate around €45 million in additional Exchequer revenue while limiting further movement toward illicit and non-Irish-tax-paid tobacco. Revenue's existing estimate for a comparable €0.25 increase, including pro-rata rises on other tobacco products, is about €18 million for a full year.
JTI
Sep.18 by 2Firsts Perspectives
Special Report|Virginia Vape Directory Shows Contrast Between Vuse and JUUL Pod Systems and CrossBar 20K, Loon Flavored Disposables
Special Report|Virginia Vape Directory Shows Contrast Between Vuse and JUUL Pod Systems and CrossBar 20K, Loon Flavored Disposables
A 2Firsts analysis of Virginia's liquid nicotine and vapor product certification directory identified 213 product records from 15 manufacturers. Companies associated with BAT, Altria, Imperial Brands, JTI and JUUL account for 127 entries. The directory also includes independent brands CrossBar 20K, Loon and Breeze. CrossBar advertises a 13mL disposable capable of up to 20,000 puffs, while Loon has 16 disposable entries featuring fruit, cooling and beverage-related flavors. Of all records, 120 are labeled as under FDA PMTA review. Virginia introduced revised penalties on October 1, 2026, including a minimum first-violation civil penalty of $5,000 per unlisted product, alongside new retail tobacco permitting requirements.
Regulations
Oct.30
FDA Appoints Former Tobacco Enforcement Deputy Jessica Zeller as Director as Agency Weighs PMTA Framework Changes
FDA Appoints Former Tobacco Enforcement Deputy Jessica Zeller as Director as Agency Weighs PMTA Framework Changes
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has named Jessica Zeller director of the Center for Tobacco Products' (CTP) Office of Compliance and Enforcement (OCE), effective November 1, 2026. Zeller, the office's inaugural deputy director, returns from medical device manufacturer Edwards Lifesciences with more than 20 years of regulatory and legal experience. The appointment follows CTP leadership changes and adjustments to tobacco regulation. Bret Koplow became permanent CTP director in September; the FDA revised enforcement priorities for unauthorized e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches in May and announced faster PMTA review procedures. On September 28, the agency said it would evaluate changes to the existing PMTA regulatory framework, including potential rulemaking to replace it.
FDA
Oct.20 by 2Firsts Perspectives