What the Future Holds: US E-Cig Regulation Landscape From a Bipartisan View

Bipartisan competition is one of the main features of American politics. The U.S. Republicans are right-wing Conservatives and Democrats are left-wing Liberals. The Republican Party advocates traditional ethics of responsibility, and emphasizes pluralism. In the long run, 50 states in the United States have gradually formed the distinction between reds state (supporting the Republican Party) and blue states (supporting the Democratic Party). Since the states of the United States have independent legislative and law enforcement powers, the political orientation of each state has also profoundly affected the legal, economic, cultural and other aspects of the state.

Thus, state attitudes to vape will have a macro impact on the development of the vaping industry in the United States. The new-type tobacco represented by vape is a new thing, and it is also a hot topic of legislation and regulation in recent years. The recent mid-term election in the United States has come to an end, 2FIRSTS would like to take this opportunity to try to analyze the vape regulation situation from the perspective of bipartisan competition in the United States and communicate with readers.

1. The pattern of mid-term elections has come out

As a result of this mid-term election, the red-blue state pattern has basically formed: the red-blue state pattern involved in the Senate election this year is basically similar to that in the past four presidential elections, as shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2 below:

2. Comparison of attitudes on vaping between red and blue states

On the basis of the above red and blue state distribution data, 2FIRSTS collected the regulatory policies and tax policies of various states on vaping and related products, and obtained the following findings:

1. States that ban flavored tobacco or vape products (Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, New York and California) are all "deep blue states" that vote for Democratic presidential candidates for four consecutive terms.

2. Most of the states that levy excise taxes on vape (see Figure 3 below) are blue states. Minnesota, Vermont and California, which impose high excise taxes on vape, are deep blue states that vote for democratic presidential candidates for four consecutive terms.

3. Among the states where recreational marijuana is legal, almost all are dark blue except for four red states - Alaska, Montana, Missouri and Arizona. The red-blue ratio is 4:17, as shown in Figure 4.

To sum up, we can use the following table to summarize the attitude differences between red and blue states towards new products such as vapes:

3. What future holds

In the midterm election, the Democratic Party "gave up" the House of Representatives to the Republican Party. The Democratic Party and the Republican Party took control of Senate and House of Representatives respectively. Biden's future governance is constrained. According to media analysis, this pattern actually represents that "any major legislation that may shake the economic prospects is difficult to pass easily, and the economy can develop on its own without adverse policy threats." (Reference [1])

Based on the above prediction, the vaping industry will have a window period of relatively stable policy in the next two years. The next change will depend on the 2024 presidential election.

Next, 2FIRSTS will interpret and predict the trend of U.S. vape regulation from the perspective of the legislation, the administration, and the judicature respectively.

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