Goldman Sachs: Chinese Brands Geek Bar and Breeze Surge in U.S. Market as Juul, Vuse Lose Share

Key points:

·The Rise of Chinese Brands: In the four weeks leading up to May 3, 2025, the combined market share of Guangdong QISITECH's Geek Bar, Raz, and Raz LTX brands accounted for 25.1% of the e-cigarette market in the United States, ranking second. Shenzhen INNOKIN Technology's Breeze Smoke brand ranked fourth with a market share of 7.3%.

·Market landscape changes: Vuse (British American Tobacco) still holds the top spot with a market share of 34.9%; Juul falls to third place with a market share of 18.5%; Altria's NJoy (4.1%) ranks fifth; other Chinese brands like HQD (1%), Mr. Fog (0.7%), and Kado Bar (0.6%) also have a presence in the market.

·Growth rates: Geek Bar Pulse saw a year-on-year increase of 729.2%, Raz grew by 232.6%, and Breeze increased by 105.2%. Sales for Vuse and Juul decreased by 11.2% and 15.2% respectively.

·Regulatory Gaps Raise Concerns: British American Tobacco (BAT) and Altria have stated that approximately 50% of the US market is dominated by "unregulated" e-cigarette products. Both companies have repeatedly urged the FDA to strengthen enforcement against illegal products, but with limited success.

According to a recent report by Bonnie Herzog, a senior beverage and tobacco stocks analyst at Goldman Sachs, Chinese manufacturer Guangdong QISITECH Co., Ltd. ranked second in market share in the U.S. e-cigarette market with its Geek Bar, Raz, and Raz LTX brands in the four weeks leading up to May 3. Another Chinese manufacturer, Shenzhen INNOKIN Technology Co., Ltd., ranked fourth with its Breeze Smoke brand, surpassing Altria Group's NJoy and following Juul Labs Inc.

According to reports, as of May 3, 2025, the U.S. e-cigarette market has shown the following pattern over the past four weeks:

·Vuse, produced by R.J. Reynolds Vapor Co., holds the top spot in the market with a 34.9% market share.

·Geek Bar, manufactured by China's Guangdong QISITECH Co., ranks second with a 21.1% market share. 

·Juul comes in third with an 18.5% market share. 

·Breeze Smoke, produced by China's Shenzhen INNOKIN Technology Co., ranks fourth with a 7.3% market share, with Breeze Pro at 5% and Breeze at 2.3%. 

·NJoy (Altria Group-owned) takes fifth place with a 4.1% market share. 

Additionally, other related brands from Guangdong QISITECH Co., such as Raz and Raz LTX, each hold a 2% market share, bringing the company's total share in the U.S. market to 25.1%.

The performance of other Chinese brands in the US market is as follows:

• HQD：1%
• Mr. Fog：0.7%
• Kado Bar：0.6%

Report showed that in the past 52 weeks, sales of Vuse decreased by 11.2%, Juul by 15.2%, while NJoy increased by 31.2%. In contrast, Geek Bar Pulse grew by 729.2%, Raz by 232.6%, and Breeze by 105.2%.

The report is based on data collected by Nielsen from large convenience store chains, while for smaller chains, Nielsen uses trend estimates, so changes in the report may not be immediate.

British American Tobacco and Altria claim that these unregulated synthetic products make up approximately half of the current e-cigarette market in the US. Both British American Tobacco (BAT) and Altria Group have repeatedly urged the FDA and other federal agencies to strengthen enforcement of unregulated Chinese e-cigarette products, but so far their efforts have seen limited success.

According to Altria's data, the three leading unregulated brands in market share are Zone, Fre, and Juice Head, as well as Elf Bar, Breeze, and Mr. Fog. Altria CEO Billy Gifford stated in February to analysts that these products are posing a threat to the long-term opportunity for harm reduction through FDA authorized e-cigarette products in the US.

However, unregulated imports of e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches may continue to eat into Reynolds' potential revenue growth, according to Herzog. She stated that insufficient federal enforcement against illegal e-cigarette products has limited short-term profit growth for publicly traded tobacco companies. Herzog predicts that as consumer demand for smokeless tobacco and nicotine products rises, their sales will surpass those of traditional cigarettes by 2035.