Impact of ENDS Ban on Combustible Cigarette Sales: Evidence from US State Policies

A study titled "The Impact of Electronic Nicotine Delivery System (ENDS) Bans on Combustible Cigarette Sales: Evidence from State-Level Policies in the United States" examined the short-term electronic cigarette bans that were implemented in several US states in response to public concerns in 2019. The research group analyzed whether state-level ENDS bans in Massachusetts, Washington, and Rhode Island led to increased cigarette sales, and found that this was indeed the case.

Our results indicate that states with bans had higher cigarette sales compared to other periods after the bans. The comprehensive ban of ENDS and cigarettes in Massachusetts was associated with a 7.5% increase in cigarette sales (P < .01); the ban of non-tobacco flavored ENDS was associated with a 4.5% higher than expected cigarette sales (P < .1). We did not find any statistically significant effects during the cessation period, and a randomized control trial with control status as a placebo test showed no difference in cigarette sales observed during the same period.

Changes in sales of electronic cigarette products after the inspection of the national flavor ban.

Meanwhile, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's analysis of the effects of the ban on the sale of flavored electronic cigarettes in Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, and Washington failed to take into account the differences in cigarette sales, resulting in flawed conclusions. The analysis by the CDC found that restrictions on the sale of non-tobacco flavored products were associated with a decrease in total electronic cigarette sales of between 25.01% and 31.26% compared to states with no restrictions.

However, the conclusion of this study has been criticized for several reasons, according to the Canadian Vaping Association (CVA). Firstly, the aforementioned statistics led to hasty assumptions and conclusions, that a decrease in total sales equates to a definite decrease in youth vaping rates. Additionally, the study failed to prove in any way that a decrease in smoking rates occurred among youth. "Firstly, the study acknowledges that it was incapable of evaluating the age of purchasers. The most common way for young people to obtain these products is through social purchasing. Even if the age of purchasers could be verified, it would only be possible to determine the decrease in youth vaping through additional research.

The most important factor is the increase in CVA. Even if e-cigarette sales decrease among young people, it can only be considered a victory if it is proven that they did not start smoking in the first place. Additionally, reducing the use of e-cigarettes is not a victory when the outcome could be former smokers relapsing or turning to potentially dangerous black markets.

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