Impact of ENDS Ban on Combustible Cigarette Sales: Evidence from US State Policies

Oct.27.2022
Impact of ENDS Ban on Combustible Cigarette Sales: Evidence from US State Policies
A study examines the impact of ENDS bans on combustible cigarette sales in three US states and finds an increase.

A study titled "The Impact of Electronic Nicotine Delivery System (ENDS) Bans on Combustible Cigarette Sales: Evidence from State-Level Policies in the United States" examined the short-term electronic cigarette bans that were implemented in several US states in response to public concerns in 2019. The research group analyzed whether state-level ENDS bans in Massachusetts, Washington, and Rhode Island led to increased cigarette sales, and found that this was indeed the case.


Our results indicate that states with bans had higher cigarette sales compared to other periods after the bans. The comprehensive ban of ENDS and cigarettes in Massachusetts was associated with a 7.5% increase in cigarette sales (P < .01); the ban of non-tobacco flavored ENDS was associated with a 4.5% higher than expected cigarette sales (P < .1). We did not find any statistically significant effects during the cessation period, and a randomized control trial with control status as a placebo test showed no difference in cigarette sales observed during the same period.


Changes in sales of electronic cigarette products after the inspection of the national flavor ban.


Meanwhile, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's analysis of the effects of the ban on the sale of flavored electronic cigarettes in Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, and Washington failed to take into account the differences in cigarette sales, resulting in flawed conclusions. The analysis by the CDC found that restrictions on the sale of non-tobacco flavored products were associated with a decrease in total electronic cigarette sales of between 25.01% and 31.26% compared to states with no restrictions.


However, the conclusion of this study has been criticized for several reasons, according to the Canadian Vaping Association (CVA). Firstly, the aforementioned statistics led to hasty assumptions and conclusions, that a decrease in total sales equates to a definite decrease in youth vaping rates. Additionally, the study failed to prove in any way that a decrease in smoking rates occurred among youth. "Firstly, the study acknowledges that it was incapable of evaluating the age of purchasers. The most common way for young people to obtain these products is through social purchasing. Even if the age of purchasers could be verified, it would only be possible to determine the decrease in youth vaping through additional research.


The most important factor is the increase in CVA. Even if e-cigarette sales decrease among young people, it can only be considered a victory if it is proven that they did not start smoking in the first place. Additionally, reducing the use of e-cigarettes is not a victory when the outcome could be former smokers relapsing or turning to potentially dangerous black markets.


Statement:


This article is compiled from third-party information and provided solely for industry professionals for educational and exchange purposes.


This article does not represent the views of 2FIRSTS and 2FIRSTS cannot confirm the truthfulness or accuracy of the article's content. The translation of this article is only for the purpose of exchanging and researching within the industry.


Due to limitations in translation ability, the translated article may not accurately convey the same meaning as the original. It is recommended to refer to the original article for accuracy.


2FIRSTS maintains complete alignment with the Chinese government on any domestic, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, or foreign-related statements and stances.


Copyright for compiled information belongs to the original media and authors, please contact for removal if there is any infringement.



Disclaimer

This article is provided solely for professional research, industry discussion, and informational purposes. Any references to brands, companies, products, technologies, or policies are made for factual reporting and analytical purposes only, and do not constitute endorsement, recommendation, promotion, or advertising by 2Firsts.

Nicotine-containing products, including but not limited to cigarettes, e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products, and nicotine pouches, carry significant health risks. Readers are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their respective jurisdictions, including age restrictions and access limitations.

The information contained in this article should not be regarded as investment, legal, medical, regulatory, or commercial advice. While 2Firsts strives to ensure the accuracy and reliability of its content, it does not assume liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from errors, omissions, inaccuracies, or reliance on the information contained herein.

This article is not intended for individuals below the legal age for accessing tobacco or nicotine-related information in their jurisdiction.

 

Copyright Notice

This article is either original content produced by 2Firsts or content reproduced, translated, summarized, or adapted from third-party sources with attribution where applicable. The intellectual property rights of the original content remain with 2Firsts or the respective original rights holders.

No individual or organization may copy, reproduce, distribute, republish, modify, translate, or otherwise use this content without prior authorization. Any unauthorized use may result in legal action.

For copyright-related inquiries, corrections, or removal requests, please contact: info@2firsts.com.

 

AI-Assisted Translation and Editing Notice

Portions of this article may have been translated, edited, or reviewed with the assistance of artificial intelligence tools to improve efficiency and readability. Due to the limitations of AI-assisted translation and editing, discrepancies, omissions, or inaccuracies may exist when compared with the original source.

Where applicable, readers are advised to refer to the original source for the most complete and accurate information. If you identify any errors or believe that any content infringes upon your rights, please contact us at info@2firsts.com, and we will review and address the matter promptly.

2Firsts Hosts China Market Forum at InterTabac as Global Industry Attention to China’s Tobacco Sector Deepens
2Firsts Hosts China Market Forum at InterTabac as Global Industry Attention to China’s Tobacco Sector Deepens
On September 16, 2Firsts hosted a China-focused industry forum during InterTabac in Dortmund, bringing together more than 30 participants from North America, Europe, India, South Korea and other markets. The session covered traditional tobacco, next-generation products, exports, technology, regulation and supply chains, while examining how China’s tobacco sector operates, where its transformation may be heading, and why its growing role matters increasingly to companies across the global tobacco and nicotine industry.
Sep.21
PMI Launches Fourth IQOS Convenience-Store Discount of 2026 for Black Friday in Japan, Cutting ILUMA i ONE to About $19 After Ploom AURA Fell to About $9
PMI Launches Fourth IQOS Convenience-Store Discount of 2026 for Black Friday in Japan, Cutting ILUMA i ONE to About $19 After Ploom AURA Fell to About $9
Philip Morris Japan launched its fourth confirmed nationwide convenience-store discount campaign for IQOS ILUMA i devices in 2026 on October 26, cutting three models by as much as ¥2,000, or about $12.70. The campaign began one day after JT ended a promotion that reduced Ploom AURA to ¥1,480, or about $9.40. JT says Ploom's share of Japan's heated-products category rose from 10.9% in January 2024 to 18.3% in June 2026, a gain of 7.4 percentage points, while PMI says IQOS still held about 68% category share in the third quarter. At the same time, Japan's two-stage heated-tobacco tax adjustment has pushed stick prices higher, leaving device discounts as an increasingly important tool for lowering the upfront cost of customer acquisition.
Market
Oct.28
Special Report | From New York to Washington: How FDA’s Tobacco Center Is Reworking Product Review
Special Report | From New York to Washington: How FDA’s Tobacco Center Is Reworking Product Review
FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products is reshaping how it approaches tobacco product review. Based on 2Firsts’ on-site reporting in New York and Washington, this report traces CTP’s emerging direction: stronger links between PMTA and tobacco harm reduction, more category-specific review, greater emphasis on decision-relevant science, more predictable timelines and expanded use of sPMTA for product modifications. CTP also acknowledged major constraints, including just nine PMTA review teams, persistent backlogs and limits on hiring capacity.
Regulations
Oct.08
GAO Audit Finds Nearly 132,000 FDA Tobacco Applications Waiting an Average 1,266 Days as Nicotine Pouch Pilot Practices Move Into Vape PMTA Reviews
GAO Audit Finds Nearly 132,000 FDA Tobacco Applications Waiting an Average 1,266 Days as Nicotine Pouch Pilot Practices Move Into Vape PMTA Reviews
A U.S. Government Accountability Office audit found that 131,915 tobacco product applications submitted to the FDA since 2018 remained without a final review as of December 31, 2025, with pending applications waiting an average of 1,266 days. GAO also found FDA lacks the data needed to systematically determine whether scientific reviews meet applicable timelines. HHS agreed to upgrade the agency's tracking systems. At the same time, FDA has begun applying lessons from its nicotine pouch PMTA pilot to e-cigarette reviews, while changes to enforcement policy and electronic submissions are making the specific stage of a PMTA increasingly relevant to market access.
FDA
Oct.03
New York City Opens Lottery for 55 Vape Retail License Slots Across 23 Community Districts, Including 28 in Brooklyn
New York City Opens Lottery for 55 Vape Retail License Slots Across 23 Community Districts, Including 28 in Brooklyn
New York City's Department of Consumer and Worker Protection (DCWP) opened applications on November 2, 2026, for a lottery covering tobacco and electronic cigarette retail dealer licenses, with a deadline of 5 p.m. New York local time on November 30. According to the city's October 1 notice, 55 electronic cigarette retail license slots are available across 23 community districts, including 28 in Brooklyn, alongside 322 tobacco retail license slots across 41 districts. Businesses must enter the lottery and, if invited, complete licensing requirements within 65 days. New York City continues to restrict e-cigarette retail sales to tobacco-flavored or unflavored products, while city retail licenses do not replace FDA product marketing authorization.
Market
Nov.04
Product | PMI Launches TEREA Black Mint Pearl in Japan, Adding First Capsule Variant to Black Range With Nationwide Rollout From October 19
Product | PMI Launches TEREA Black Mint Pearl in Japan, Adding First Capsule Variant to Black Range With Nationwide Rollout From October 19
Philip Morris Japan (PMJ) launched TEREA Black Mint Pearl on October 15, 2026, introducing the first capsule-equipped heated tobacco stick in the TEREA Black range for IQOS ILUMA devices. The product combines a strong menthol profile with a crushable mint capsule and is priced at ¥640 per 20-stick pack, including tax. Sales began at four IQOS stores and selected retail partners on October 15, with distribution expanding to convenience stores and other tobacco retailers nationwide from October 19. The launch brings Japan's TEREA portfolio to 28 variants, including 21 menthol-related products, or 75% of the range.
product
Oct.16 by 2Firsts Perspectives