Study Says Europe’s Illicit Disposable Vape Market to Reach EUR 6.6 Billion in 2026

Key Points 

• A study by the German Fraunhofer Institute for Research suggests that the illegal market for disposable e-cigarettes in Europe will be worth 6.6 billion euros (approximately 7.656 billion dollars) by 2026. 
• The market is expected to increase to 10.8 billion euros (approximately 12.528 billion dollars) by 2030. 
• The study found that a large number of disposable e-cigarette products are operating outside the framework of the EU Tobacco Products Directive in the "informal market." 
• Common violations listed in the report include e-liquid capacity exceeding 2 milliliters, nicotine concentrations exceeding 20 milligrams per milliliter, missing or incomplete health warnings, and failure to declare products through the EU product registration system. 
• The study also highlights the growing issue of illegal cigarettes and e-cigarettes in France, Belgium, and the Netherlands.

2Firsts, March 13, 2026.

According to Eureporter, a new study from the Fraunhofer Institute in Germany shows that the rapidly expanding illegal market for disposable e-cigarettes is undermining European regulations, driving youth e-cigarette use, and causing significant revenue losses for governments.

The study was commissioned by the strategic consulting firm SKR and was released in Brussels. According to the research, a significant portion of the disposable e-cigarette market is currently operating in what researchers refer to as the "informal market", meaning products that operate outside of the regulatory framework established by the EU Tobacco Products Directive (TPD).

A study shows that this illegal market had a size of 6.6 billion euros (approximately 7.656 billion US dollars, at the rate of 1 EUR = 1.16 USD) in 2026, and is projected to increase to 10.8 billion euros (approximately 12.528 billion US dollars) by 2030, highlighting significant gaps in the European Union's customs controls, tax enforcement, and consumer protection.

A study has found that differences and gaps between member states create a grey area that enables illegal trade to thrive. In terms of e-liquid imports, China is a major source for the European Union.

Researchers warn that the growth of this parallel market not only raises public health concerns, but also involves issues such as tax revenue, regulatory enforcement, and the expansion of organized crime networks.

A study has found that disposable e-cigarettes have become one of the fastest-growing segments in the nicotine market in Europe. These single-use devices are affordable, brightly colored, and come in a variety of flavors, making them increasingly popular among young consumers in recent years. Researchers have stated that the rapid growth of the market has also created opportunities for non-compliant and potentially illegal products to enter Europe through complex global supply chains.

Fraunhofer research has found that many products currently on the European market do not comply with EU regulations. Common violations listed in the report include e-liquid capacities exceeding the EU-mandated 2ml limit, nicotine concentrations higher than the legal limit of 20mg/ml, missing or incomplete health warnings, and failure to declare to authorities through the EU product registration system. Researchers say that these types of products are becoming increasingly common in multiple EU member states.

The popularity of disposable e-cigarettes among teenagers is considered one of the most controversial issues in the market. During a press conference announcing the research, Rico Bak, Managing Partner of SKR AG, stated that the study was initially launched due to concerns about school-age children using e-cigarettes. He said that he heard from his daughter that students aged 12 to 15 are already using e-cigarettes, which made him seriously question the actual prevalence of this market.

A study has found that disposable e-cigarettes typically come in colorful packaging and are flavored with sweet flavors such as fruit, candy, or soft drinks; Critics argue that these characteristics may make them especially appealing to young consumers. Public health experts warn that early exposure to nicotine could increase addiction risk and lead to long-term health consequences.

According to the EU Tobacco Products Directive, e-cigarettes must adhere to strict regulations, including limits on nicotine strength, restrictions on e-liquid capacity, and requirements for product notification and health warnings.

However, the implementation of these rules mainly relies on national regulatory agencies and customs departments. Researchers say that the e-cigarette supply chain is increasingly globalized, making compliance monitoring more difficult. Products manufactured outside the European Union can enter the market through various channels such as cross-border trade, online platforms, and small independent retailers. Some devices that do not meet regulatory requirements are reportedly being openly sold in stores.

Image source: Eureporter