The Effect of Taxation on Smoking Rates: A Study

Oct.12.2022
Colombian lawmaker suggests tax increase on tobacco and vaping products, but research predicts it may lead to increased smoking.

Carolina Giraldo, a female congresswoman from the Colombian Green Alliance, has proposed a suggestion to increase the local tobacco tax and impose taxes on smoking products.


This initiative is both a source of national revenue and "beneficial to the fundamental right to health." However, the World Vapers' Alliance (WVA) emphasized in a press release that given the scientific evidence supporting smokers quitting, the initiative is doomed to "fail in achieving its proposed goals." The initiative did not take into account the testimony and experience of thousands of users and e-cigarette entrepreneurs in the country, and Congresswoman Geraldine did not consult with any affected groups on her proposal.


The value-added tax could have unforeseen consequences.


A recent study by Yale University professor Abigail Friedman and Georgia State University professor Michael Pesko confirms predictions made by several public health and anti-smoking experts that an e-cigarette tax could lead to an increase in smoking rates, resulting in serious unintended consequences.


A study titled "Young People's Reaction to Taxation on Cigarettes and Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems" investigated the effects of increased value-added tax on smoking behavior among young consumers aged 18 to 25. Researchers found that, contrary to predictions of experts in the field, while higher value-added tax rates led to a decrease in the use of electronic cigarettes, they also resulted in an increase in the number of smokers.


According to the authors of the research report, "For every additional dollar in e-cigarette tax, there is a significant decrease in the number of young people using e-cigarettes per day, but an increase in the number of people using regular cigarettes." The researchers ultimately concluded that "raising taxes on electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) is associated with a decrease in ENDS use, but an increase in smoking rates among the 18-25 age group.


A study published on Fee.Org highlights a well-known phenomenon called "substitution effect," where a decrease in product sales is often attributed to consumers switching to cheaper alternatives.


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