According to a report from City AM on February 4th, British American Tobacco (BAT) is set to release its annual performance report. Analysts predict that BAT's total revenue in 2023 will reach £27.6 billion, with non-traditional tobacco categories accounting for approximately £3.46 billion, showing an increase from the previous year's £2.9 billion.
According to reports, the total revenue of BAT in 2022 amounted to £27.65 billion. It is expected that BAT's annual revenue in 2023 will see a low single-digit growth, ranging from 3% to 5%. The oral nicotine pouches, heated tobacco products, and e-cigarettes make up only 16.6% of the total group revenue for BAT. Despite BAT's plans to have half of its income coming from non-combustible products by 2035, these products currently hold a small proportion in the overall company revenue.
Currently, BAT is facing difficulties in the US market due to the surge in illegal disposable e-cigarettes. Additionally, the recent announcement by the UK government to ban disposable e-cigarettes has also impacted BAT's growth prospects.
However, there are analysts who have different opinions on the matter. Owen Bennett, global tobacco analyst at Jefferies Investment Bank, pointed out that this new policy is unlikely to directly impact traditional tobacco manufacturers. He stated that tighter regulations are actually beneficial for tobacco giants as it will eliminate cheaper and disposable brands.
According to stock prices, in the past year, the stock prices of BAT have fallen by approximately 24%. The reasons for this include BAT's announcement to the market of a devaluation of certain American cigarette brands. Additionally, illegal disposable e-cigarettes from China have been gaining market share, further exacerbating the challenges faced by BAT and its distributors. They also face the issue of steadily declining demand for traditional cigarettes.
In response to market changes, AJ Bell's investment director, Russ Mould, stated that "smokers are continuing to switch to next-generation products, including e-cigarettes, which has prompted British American Tobacco to adopt a long-term view on its combustible assets." He added, "While the company did pay out a dividend, given its underperforming stock price and the increasing regulatory and political pressures faced by the industry, investors may question their commitment to this stock."
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