Experts Predict Booming E-Cigarette Industry by 2023

Experts in the US House of Representatives predict that the electronic cigarette industry will thrive in 2023.

In late November, experts in the electronic cigarette industry shared their overall outlook for the future two years after the 2022 elections for the Vapor Technology Association (VTA). They believe that the next two years will be better than the previous two years.

Tony Abboud, the executive director of the Vapor Technology Association, revealed that his organization has been collaborating with two lobbying groups based in Washington D.C., West Front Strategies and public affairs firm FORA Partners, to advance American interests. He also stated that the e-cigarette industry will continue to develop as the Republican Party takes control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2023. "We have a very specific agenda, and we have discussed some of it as an overview of what we are pursuing," he said. "We have done a lot of groundwork.

Shimmy Stein, a partner at West Front Strategies, suggests that a change in leadership within the House of Representatives could have a positive impact on the electronic cigarette industry, at least until the next election cycle. "Taking control of messaging, the chairmanship, and the legislative process is a crucial part of governance," he explained. "Therefore, while the House may not have reached the level or size desired by Republicans in terms of the majority seats, it is still very important and will change the way Washington operates.

According to Craig Kalkut, a partner at West Front Strategies, the e-cigarette industry is expected to feel "more comfortable and secure" in the divided Congress over the next two years (with no change in leadership in the U.S. Senate). However, concerns over youth e-cigarette use have posed threats from both Democrats and Republicans. "We still need to work with both sides. We may still face issues and threats of overregulation and inadequate legislation. But most importantly, we will have a more comfortable environment because the Republicans control one House of Congress," Kalkut said.

Kalkut stated that reconciliation is a way for Congress to pass tax, spending, and debt limit legislation with a majority vote, without posing a threat to the e-cigarette industry. He said this is impossible in a divided Congress. "Ultimately, this means that anything that passes needs support from both parties," Kalkut said. "Therefore, [legislation] may be more limited, more moderate, and hopefully, if we pass anything in our region, it will be something that allows us to thrive, addresses concerns around youth vaping, but does not overregulate and push people away from e-cigarettes.

Carl Cutt also confirmed that the deadlock is an issue within a divided Congress; however, it could also prompt compromise between the two sides. "They are both seen as responsible, so sometimes they both want to get something done. This will bring people to the negotiating table, and often it is not an issue at the core of the ideology of either party," he said. "It is difficult to reach an agreement on tax issues, or it is difficult to reach an agreement on healthcare issues, but areas where Democrats and Republicans can come together, such as electronic cigarettes, common sense provisions may have a chance to prevail.

Max Hamel, co-founder of FORA, stated that when Congress is divided, the White House tends to heavily rely on executive privilege. Since there is no known executive agenda regarding e-cigarettes, it is unlikely that any regulations related to them will be implemented. As Republicans control the House of Representatives, they also lead the committees. Hamel said that the House Oversight Committee and its subcommittees could provide opportunities for the e-cigarette industry.

We do have new faces in both the majority and minority, so they may encounter some growing pains," he said. "The biggest issue is how to exercise this new power, especially in the House of Representatives. Whether it's one seat or 40 seats, the power of the majority is the same, and it comes from an oversight and investigative standpoint. From a legislative perspective, it may not necessarily be right. As members of oversight committees, we do have a chance to be in the spotlight, but this is indeed an opportunity for us right now, rather than just defending and focusing on things that benefit us.

In addition, as Juul loses control over the e-cigarette market, Hamel notes that the industry is undergoing a transformation. Juul had been the focus of efforts to protect young people from e-cigarette use, but today it is no longer the main focus. The market is now composed of more diverse companies that have different technologies aimed at reducing harm. Hamel believes this message should be conveyed: "I think our primary task is to focus on information that emphasizes harm reduction," he says.

Kalkut added that the e-cigarette industry now has an opportunity to change the conversation, particularly with Democratic and Republican critics and skeptics, by continuously expanding the scientific evidence that shows the relative safety and huge potential for harm reduction of the next generation of e-cigarette products compared to tobacco products. "As the past few years have gone by, this has become increasingly clear," he said. "I believe that once we prove this point, once we demonstrate that we as an industry association are committed to addressing youth e-cigarette use, we have a real opportunity to change this narrative.

Ashley Davis, co-founder of West Front Strategies, told attendees that in retrospect, the industry has overcome challenges and achieved success. However, she expressed concerns prior to the previous session of Congress (2020-2022) as to which direction or to what extent the electronic cigarette industry would be relied upon by the Biden administration. She stated that the industry "dodged a bullet" and may have faced even greater losses in the first two years of the Biden administration. She also noted that the issue of youth usage will continue to be a primary concern in any discussion of products that deliver electronic nicotine delivery systems.

We do need to address the youth issue and I think we all recognize that any negative news that arises is usually centered around it...Everyone likes a microphone. It's a congressman thing. If there's an issue to be discussed, that's what they're going to discuss," explained Davis. "[We are] working to ensure that no bad legislation is passed - which is less likely in this Congress than ever before.

Abboud fielded questions from the audience and concluded the conference by speculating about the potential impact of the Reagan-Udall Foundation's external review of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Tobacco Products Center. He predicted that the results of the review would be announced in mid-December.

According to Abboud, the large number of comments from FDA staff regarding the Reagan-Udall evaluation indicates that the regulatory agency is in disarray and influenced more by external forces rather than scientific research. He expressed his hope that the foundation would recommend to the FDA that the decision for pre-market tobacco product applications (PMTA) should not be subject to any external pressure, especially political pressure.

Abboud stated that the review process should adhere to FDA recommendations that PMTAs must be determined based on the science submitted, and ensure that the agency actually reviews all the science submitted as part of any application and reviews all submitted applications. He added that this is another significant failure of the current process, where applications are being rejected without comprehensive review.