Philip Morris CEO: IQOS Holds 80% of Japan's Heated Tobacco Market, Growth Expected for Next Decade

Mar.17.2025
Philip Morris CEO: IQOS Holds 80% of Japan's Heated Tobacco Market, Growth Expected for Next Decade
CEO of Philip Morris International (PMI) indicates strong growth for IQOS in Japan despite pending tax hike.

Key points:

 

1. Philip Morris International (PMI) CEO Jacek Olczak stated that "IQOS" holds an 80% market share in Japan, with nearly 50% of smokers using the product. He expects the market to continue growing in the next ten years.

 

2. Japan plans to raise the tax rate on heated tobacco products to be equal to traditional cigarettes by 2026, with further increases scheduled for 2027. Olczak suggests that this policy may have a negative impact on consumers who have already switched to heated tobacco products.

 

3. Olczak said that heating tobacco can reduce the risk of exposing harmful ingredients by 90% to 95%, and existing data is sufficient to prove its positive impact.

 


 

2Firsts, reporting from Shenzhen - According to a report by Sankei on March 17, Jacek Olczak, the CEO of Philip Morris International (PMI), stated in an interview with Sankei that PMI's heated tobacco product, "IQOS", first launched in Japan 12 years ago, currently holds a market share of approximately 80% in the country.

 

Olsak pointed out that the use of heated tobacco among smokers in Japan is close to 50%, and the trend of shifting from traditional cigarettes to heated tobacco remains very active. He believes that the heated tobacco market will continue to grow over the next decade.

 

In addition, the Japanese government is planning to increase the tax rate on heated tobacco products to the same level as traditional cigarettes by 2026, and to continue raising taxes in 2027. 

 

This policy has raised concerns from PMI. Olczak pointed out that heated tobacco products are considered to pose lower health risks than traditional cigarettes, and in some countries in Europe and the Americas, governments encourage smokers to switch from traditional cigarettes to heated tobacco products through tax incentives. 

 

He believes that the government's tax increase policy in Japan may have a negative impact on consumers who have already switched to heated tobacco products, even "punishing" them for making a healthier choice.

 

During the interview, Olczak also elaborated on the current situation and prospects of heated tobacco in the Japanese market. 

 

He pointed out that heated tobacco maintains a double-digit annual growth rate in many markets globally, and Japan is transitioning from traditional cigarettes to heated tobacco at a faster pace than other countries. 

 

Currently, in ten major cities such as Tokyo, Sendai, and Fukuoka, the market share of heated tobacco has exceeded that of traditional cigarettes.

 

Despite facing challenges such as a decreasing population and shrinking market size, Olczak remains confident in the market outlook for heated tobacco products in Japan. 

 

He pointed out that since the introduction of heated tobacco products, nearly half of smokers have switched from traditional cigarettes. It is expected that the remaining smokers will take at least another 10 years to complete this transition, indicating that there is still significant growth potential in the market.

 

Regarding the Japanese government's policy of raising the tobacco tax rate to enhance national defense capabilities, Olczak said that from a global perspective of "Harm Reduction," many countries are promoting a shift from traditional tobacco to heated tobacco through taxation and regulation policies. 

 

He believes that the Japanese government should support consumers who have already made better choices, rather than hindering this process by increasing tax rates.

 

Olczak also responded to concerns about the lack of long-term clinical data on the health risks of heated tobacco. 

 

He pointed out that PMI has conducted studies showing that heated tobacco can reduce smokers' exposure to harmful components found in traditional cigarettes by 90% to 95%. 

 

He believes that even without long-term epidemiological clinical results, the current data alone is sufficient to anticipate the positive impact of heated tobacco. He questioned whether it is reasonable to allow smokers to continue to bear the health risks associated with traditional cigarettes simply because of a lack of data.

 

We welcome news tips, article submissions, interview requests, or comments on this piece.

Please contact us at info@2firsts.com, or reach out to Alan Zhao, CEO of 2Firsts, on LinkedIn


Notice

1.  This article is intended solely for professional research purposes related to industry, technology, and policy. Any references to brands or products are made purely for objective description and do not constitute any form of endorsement, recommendation, or promotion by 2Firsts.

2.  The use of nicotine-containing products — including, but not limited to, cigarettes, e-cigarettes, nicotine pouchand heated tobacco products — carries significant health risks. Users are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and regulations in their respective jurisdictions.

3.  This article is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decisions or financial advice. 2Firsts assumes no direct or indirect liability for any inaccuracies or errors in the content.

4.  Access to this article is strictly prohibited for individuals below the legal age in their jurisdiction.

 

Copyright

 

This article is either an original work created by 2Firsts or a reproduction from third-party sources with proper attribution. All copyrights and usage rights belong to 2Firsts or the original content provider. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or any other form of unauthorized use by any individual or organization is strictly prohibited. Violators will be held legally accountable.

For copyright-related inquiries, please contact: info@2firsts.com

 

AI Assistance Disclaimer

 

This article may have been enhanced using AI tools to improve translation and editorial efficiency. However, due to technical limitations, inaccuracies may occur. Readers are encouraged to refer to the cited sources for the most accurate information.

We welcome any corrections or feedback. Please contact us at: info@2firsts.com

U.S. House Defense Bill Includes Pilot Review of Vapes, Nicotine Pouches and Heated Tobacco for Military Smokers
U.S. House Defense Bill Includes Pilot Review of Vapes, Nicotine Pouches and Heated Tobacco for Military Smokers
On July 23, 2026, the U.S. House of Representatives passed its version of the Fiscal Year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which includes Section 707 provisions requiring the Department of Defense to evaluate tobacco use and nicotine alternatives among military personnel. The pilot program would examine products including vapes, nicotine pouches and heated tobacco products, primarily among active-duty service members who continue using combustible tobacco. The provision is a policy evaluation effort, not an authorization for military vaping promotion or a ban on vape products.
Jul.28
Australia-China Operation Dismantles Tobacco Smuggling Network: 112 Containers, 60 Arrests and A$92 Million in Illicit Tobacco
Australia-China Operation Dismantles Tobacco Smuggling Network: 112 Containers, 60 Arrests and A$92 Million in Illicit Tobacco
According to The Maritime Executive on August 19, 2026, the Australian Border Force (ABF) and China’s Anti-Smuggling Bureau of General Administration of China Customs worked together to dismantle an international illicit tobacco smuggling network targeting Australia. According to information released by ABF on August 20, sustained information sharing and cooperation led to investigations into 112 shipping containers, with 91 found to contain illicit tobacco. Authorities seized more than 60 million cigarettes and 60 kilograms of loose-leaf tobacco, representing more than A$92 million in unpaid duties. More than 60 people suspected of involvement in the network were arrested in China.
Aug.20
2Firsts Exclusive Analysis | RLX Q2 Revenue Rises 14.8%, Company Takes Control of Western European Distributor and Expands Multi-Category Strategy
2Firsts Exclusive Analysis | RLX Q2 Revenue Rises 14.8%, Company Takes Control of Western European Distributor and Expands Multi-Category Strategy
business accounting for 68.5% of sales. A new controlling investment in a Western European distributor and plans to scale modern oral nicotine pouches point to a broader international strategy spanning channels and multiple product categories.
Special Report
Aug.14
Trump Names Darrell Scott as CDC Tobacco Health Adviser, Citing Tobacco Risks and Harm-Reduction Solutions
Trump Names Darrell Scott as CDC Tobacco Health Adviser, Citing Tobacco Risks and Harm-Reduction Solutions
U.S. President Donald Trump has named Pastor Darrell Scott to serve as an adviser on tobacco health issues on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Advisory Committee to the Director. Trump said Scott would focus on the burden of tobacco-related disease and help examine ways to protect Americans from dangerous tobacco products while supporting solutions that reduce harm. Scott’s public career has largely centered on faith leadership, community advocacy and politics.
Sep.02
Ohio Supreme Court Weighs Whether State Consumer Law Can Restrict Flavored Vape Sales
Ohio Supreme Court Weighs Whether State Consumer Law Can Restrict Flavored Vape Sales
The Ohio Supreme Court is hearing a case involving flavored vape sales and whether state authorities can use consumer protection laws to take action against retailers selling unauthorized vape products. Ohio officials argue that selling unauthorized flavored vapes may constitute consumer deception, while retailers argue that tobacco product regulation falls under federal Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authority and that states cannot impose additional restrictions through consumer laws. The case could affect the scope of state-level vape regulation across the United States.
Aug.06
Product | SKE Launches FRESA PRO in the U.S., Introducing Fresh Lock Technology for E-Liquid Management in High-Capacity Vapes
Product | SKE Launches FRESA PRO in the U.S., Introducing Fresh Lock Technology for E-Liquid Management in High-Capacity Vapes
Shenzhen SKE Technology has launched the FRESA PRO in the United States, a high-capacity rechargeable disposable vape featuring Fresh Lock electromagnetic valve supply control technology. The device combines a claimed capacity of up to 40,000 puffs, dual mesh coils, dual output modes and a transparent tank design. The launch reflects the high-capacity disposable vape segment’s shift from puff-count competition toward improved e-liquid management and device-level experience.
Aug.03