
In 2023, the Parties to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (hereinafter referred to as the Convention) have adopted various measures to reduce tobacco demand, supply, and harm. Stakeholders such as the World Health Organization and non-governmental organizations in tobacco control have taken new initiatives. The global tobacco control compliance work has shifted tobacco control to a more prominent position on the global governance agenda. Some extreme tobacco control measures have been widely questioned, and there is a growing divergence in the concept and practice of tobacco control compliance.

The "2023 World Tobacco Control Compliance Progress Report" provides a detailed analysis of the global tobacco epidemic in 2023, progress in the ratification and negotiation of the Convention, progress in key provisions of the Convention, and trends in tobacco control by key stakeholders. It aims to provide a reference for scientifically assessing the global tobacco control compliance situation and promoting tobacco control compliance work in a rational and pragmatic manner. We will be releasing the report in two parts. Today, let's first understand the first two aspects and the compliance progress of key provisions of the Convention.

1. Global Tobacco Consumption Trends
According to the World Health Organization's "Global Tobacco Prevalence Report 2000-2030" released in January 2024, the global tobacco use rate was 20.9% in 2022, with a smoking rate of 16.7% and a cigarette smoking rate of 15%. The total number of tobacco users worldwide was 1.245 billion, with 1.021 billion males and 0.224 billion females. From 2000 to 2022, the global tobacco use rate has been steadily declining, with a slight decrease in the number of tobacco users. Specifically, the number of female tobacco consumers has been decreasing continuously, while the number of male tobacco consumers has remained stable overall.
2. Progress in the signing and negotiation of the "Convention"
The year 2023 marks the 19th year since the entry into force of the Convention. In 2023, Malawi joined the Convention, bringing the total number of parties to 183, covering over 90% of the global population. The Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products, also known as the Protocol, is the only protocol under the Convention. In 2023, Poland and Rwanda joined the Protocol, bringing the total number of parties to 68.
The 10th Conference of the Parties to the Convention (referred to as COP10) and the 3rd Meeting of the Parties to the Protocol (referred to as MOP3) will be held in Panama City from February 5th to 15th, 2024. This conference marks the 20th anniversary of the Convention and is the first in-person meeting since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. It will address substantive issues accumulated over the past 5 years between the two meetings, with a wide range of negotiation topics and significant differences in opinions.
The key topics of the meeting include the following aspects.
Tobacco Control and the Environment. Brazil has added a temporary agenda item on "Protecting the Environment," calling for solutions to environmental issues such as deforestation, air pollution, soil degradation, and water pollution caused by the development of the tobacco industry. The focus is on the environmental damage caused by the excessive use and slow degradation of waste such as cigarette filters and tobacco packaging made of plastic. Countries like Canada, Australia, and Singapore support Brazil’s viewpoint, while Japan, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe have expressed opposing views. The resolution reached at the meeting is relatively moderate, with countries being urged to "consider appropriate regulatory measures" for filters and related devices, without requiring a ban on filters or other extreme measures, while emphasizing that each country should regulate according to its own legal framework. It is expected that environmental issues will continue to be a key and challenging topic at future meetings.
Articles 9 and 10 of the Convention are still in effect. There is a significant disagreement on whether the working group authorized by the parties to the Convention should continue the work on regulating and disclosing the ingredients in tobacco products, or if a new expert group should be established by the Convention's secretariat. Egypt, Zimbabwe, the Philippines, among others support the working group, while Canada, Australia, Singapore, and others support the expert group. As the authorization for the expert group has expired, the conference ultimately did not renew the authorization for the expert group, leading to the cessation of their work not supported by the will of the parties to the Convention. The issue will be postponed and discussed at the 11th Conference of the Parties to the Convention (COP11).
Tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship. The meeting discussed the draft "Specific Guidelines for the Implementation of Article 13 on Cross-Border Regulation of Tobacco Advertising, Promotion, and Sponsorship, and the Description of Tobacco in Entertainment Media" prepared by the working group of the Convention's Article 13. This "Specific Guidelines" is an addition to the existing implementation guidelines of Article 13 of the Convention. The meeting decided to limit the regulation of tobacco descriptions to entertainment media platforms only, removing extreme provisions such as requiring parties to publish health and ingredient warnings on entertainment media describing tobacco. It emphasized adopting measures to "broadly prohibit" rather than "completely prohibit" tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship, and reiterated that all regulatory measures should be based on each country's legislation.
Forward-looking tobacco control measures. Some contracting parties believe that the progress of global tobacco control implementation has not met expectations and suggest that forward-looking tobacco control measures should be promoted. This includes implementing tobacco control measures that are stricter than those required by the Convention, such as "plain packaging of tobacco products," "banning display of tobacco products in stores," and "tobacco-free generation." The European Union, Canada, Australia, and Thailand have expressed their support, while Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Guatemala have voiced opposition. The conference did not specify the content and implementation pathway of forward-looking tobacco control measures, but decided to establish an expert group to conduct research on this topic during the closed session. It is expected that this topic will continue to be a focus of future sessions.
The Secretariat of the Convention believes that the provisions of Article 19 of the Convention relating to responsibility should be strengthened, urging all parties to the Convention to hold the tobacco industry accountable, including for compensation. Zimbabwe, Mozambique, the Philippines, and others believe that unlimited and uncertain liability should be prevented. Brazil, Canada, Uruguay, and others insist on establishing an expert group and authorize the group to accelerate the implementation of responsibility provisions globally. The meeting ultimately decided to establish an expert group, but its mandate is limited to collecting and reviewing effective practices and relevant information from parties on responsibility mechanisms, and to "discreetly" support parties in improving civil, criminal liability systems, and related administrative measures related to the tobacco industry.
New tobacco products. The parties to the treaty generally agree that new tobacco products pose a challenge to the implementation of the convention and call for more research and regulation. The UK and Canada point out that the international community still lacks sufficient classification and research on the health effects of such products; Côte d'Ivoire and Laos believe that these products may lead young people to switch to traditional cigarettes, creating a "gateway effect"; Mexico and Ghana argue that equating new tobacco products with harm reduction products lacks scientific evidence. The conference had a thorough discussion on this topic. Due to significant overlap with other topics and a lack of basic research and large differences in opinions, the conference did not pass a resolution on this issue.
Additionally, key topics of this conference include tobacco control and human rights, improving reporting systems for parties to the treaty, peer review mechanisms for compliance, amendments to the rules of procedure, financial budgets, investment funds, and more.
Progress in implementing key articles of the Convention.
According to the definition of "tobacco control" in the Convention, tobacco control mainly includes reducing tobacco demand, reducing tobacco supply, and reducing tobacco harm. Article 5 of the Convention establishes the general obligations of the parties, including developing tobacco control strategies, plans, and policies. Articles 6 to 14 of the Convention outline measures to reduce tobacco demand, such as price and tax measures, protection from exposure to tobacco smoke, ingredient regulation and disclosure, packaging and labeling, education, communication, training and public awareness, advertising, promotion and sponsorship, and smoking cessation programs. Articles 15 to 17 of the Convention outline measures to reduce tobacco supply, such as combating illicit trade and protecting minors. In addition, issues such as regulating new tobacco products, legal responsibilities, environmental protection, and human rights have also become important topics of international attention in the global community.
Tobacco control strategies, plans, and regulations.
Article 5 of the Convention requires parties to establish, implement, regularly update, and review multisectoral comprehensive tobacco control strategies, plans, and programs. It also calls for the establishment of a national tobacco control coordination mechanism and measures to prevent interference from tobacco industry commercial and other vested interests in the development and implementation of public health policies on tobacco control. According to the latest available data, 74% of parties have enacted national comprehensive tobacco control plans through legislation, issuing administrative orders, and other means.
In 2023, several countries adjusted tobacco control legislation to expand the scope of tobacco product regulation and strengthen tobacco control measures. Australia passed the Tobacco Control Act, requiring updated graphic warning labels on cigarette packaging, strengthening health warnings on each cigarette, banning flavored tobacco products such as mint, including e-cigarettes in regulation, and clearly outlining control measures in packaging and advertising. Romania revised its tobacco control legislation to include new tobacco products such as heated cigarettes in the regulatory scope. Russia enacted the "Regulations on the Production and Circulation of Tobacco Products, Nicotine-containing Products, and their Raw Materials" to strengthen control over nicotine products, including permit management and raw material control. Canada, Costa Rica, Denmark, Georgia, Greece, Jordan, Maldives, and Mexico have implemented or revised national tobacco control laws and regulations.
In 2023, some countries implemented policies aimed at preventing the influence of the tobacco industry. Bosnia and Herzegovina amended its tobacco control law to specify requirements for transparency in government interactions with the tobacco industry. Costa Rica, Spain, Mexico, and other countries also introduced policies to regulate the involvement of public officials in tobacco industry-related activities.
In 2023, the "Smokefree Generation" bill faced setbacks. The "Smokefree Generation" is the most radical anti-smoking measure currently in place, aiming to eliminate all forms of tobacco use among the next generation by prohibiting individuals born after a certain date from purchasing or using tobacco products. In 2022, New Zealand passed the bill, with other countries such as Singapore, Denmark, Malaysia, the Netherlands, and Finland following suit with similar plans. However, in 2023, both New Zealand and Malaysia announced the repeal of the "Smokefree Generation" bill. New Zealand was the first country to implement the bill, but the new government believed it would stimulate illegal trade and worsen the economic downturn. The Malaysian government argued that the bill infringed upon the legal rights of consumers and customers.
Reduce the demand for tobacco.
Taxation and price measures.
Article 6 of the convention requires contracting parties to adopt pricing and tax measures to reduce tobacco consumption. According to the latest available data, the global average comprehensive tax rate on tobacco products in 2023 is 56%. Specifically, the average tax rate on cigarettes (taxes as a percentage of the retail price of the best-selling cigarette brand) is 61.6% (66.9% in high-income countries, 59.1% in middle-income countries, and 56.5% in low-income countries). The average retail price of cigarettes is $5.95 per pack ($9.78 in high-income countries, $5.07 in middle-income countries, and $3.10 in low-income countries).
In 2023, global tobacco tax rates have become more divergent. Among the 109 contracting parties with available data, 41 have cigarette tax rates ranging from 50% to 75%, 24 have rates between 25% and 50%, 31 have rates of over 75%, and 13 have rates below 25%. Europe has the highest tobacco tax rates globally, continuously increasing in recent years from a median of 76% in 2020 to 77% in 2023. Africa has the lowest tobacco tax rates globally, decreasing from a median of 34% in 2020 to 30% in 2023. Tobacco taxes have increased in the Americas and Eastern Mediterranean regions, while significantly decreasing in the Western Pacific region, with the median rate dropping from 60% in 2020 to 48% in 2023. This divergence in tobacco tax rates has exacerbated issues such as tobacco smuggling and other illegal trade activities.
Several countries, including the UK, Singapore, Tunisia, and Timor-Leste, have recently increased tobacco taxes. In the UK, the excise duty on cigarettes rose by 12.1%, hand-rolled tobacco by 16.1%, leading to an overall retail price increase of 10.1%. Singapore raised tobacco consumption tax by 15% in 2018, with significant increases in tax rates for cigarettes, cigars, bidis, tobacco leaves, tobacco waste, and reconstituted tobacco. Tunisia has implemented a three-year tobacco tax reform plan (2023-2025) with expected rates to surpass 75% by 2025. Timor-Leste significantly increased tobacco consumption tax, with tobacco leaf tax rising from $19/kg in 2021 to $100/kg in 2023, resulting in an average cigarette tax rate of 59.8% by 2023 and a 75% increase in retail prices to $3.5 per pack. Russia, Austria, the Netherlands, South Africa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Estonia, and others have also increased tobacco taxes or prices to varying degrees. Meanwhile, countries such as Canada, Egypt, Portugal, Morocco, Denmark, Malaysia, Azerbaijan, Vietnam, and Latvia are focusing on strengthening tax control on new tobacco products such as e-cigarettes. Nigeria and Norway, on the other hand, have decreased tobacco taxes. Nigeria has introduced diverse tax characteristics to create a better business environment and promote business development, temporarily suspending consumption taxes on some locally produced goods, including tobacco. Norway's average cigarette tax rate decreased from 62% to 56%.
Excessive tobacco taxes are a significant factor leading to illegal trade. In Kenya, tobacco consumption taxes have increased by over 50% since 2019, widening the tax gap with neighboring East African Community countries. As a result, the domestic market share of illicit cigarettes has grown from 11.3% in 2019 to 25.5% in 2022. The surge in illegal trade has actually expanded the tobacco market, leading to an increase in tobacco use. Data from the World Health Organization shows that Montenegro has been steadily raising tobacco taxes in recent years, causing prices for cigarettes, cigars, heated tobacco products, e-cigarettes, and so on to rise annually, while the affordability of legal products decreases. Due to rampant tobacco smuggling, the country's smoking rate has increased from 35.4% in 2020 to 36.2% in 2023.
Prevent exposure to tobacco smoke.
Article 8 of the convention requires the contracting parties to take measures to prevent exposure to tobacco smoke in public places, mainly in the form of legislation controlling smoking in public places. Due to differences in tobacco production and sales, consumption habits, social customs, and enforcement capabilities, the scope and intensity of controlling smoking in public places vary. Among the 195 countries and regions for which data is available, 121 have not implemented nationwide legislation for controlling smoking in public places. Specifically, 27% of high-income countries, 23% of middle-income countries, and 43% of low-income countries have not implemented or have only implemented smoking bans in 1 to 2 types of public places. In the United States (a non-party to the convention), 20 out of 50 states have not designated restaurants and bars as smoke-free places.
In recent years, the types of places where smoking is controlled in some countries and regions are expanding, from indoor places to outdoor places, from public places to specific non-public places, including airports, cultural facilities, public beaches, parks, hotel common areas, hotel rooms, prisons, private transportation with minors, and outdoor places where minors gather. The types of products for controlling smoking are also expanding, from combustible tobacco to new tobacco products, and even new nicotine products. For example, Mexico continues to expand the control of smoking places and has extended smoking control measures to e-cigarettes (including those without nicotine). Critics argue that strict bans in Mexico do not align with the country's tobacco prevalence and enforcement capabilities, making it difficult for the bans to be implemented and potentially fostering corruption in the enforcement field. Kyrgyzstan has expanded smoking control measures to hookahs, heated tobacco products, and e-cigarettes, implementing a comprehensive smoking ban in indoor public places and some outdoor public places.
It is worth noting that the establishment of designated smoking areas has become an international standard practice. When formulating public smoking control laws and policies, an increasing number of countries and regions are incorporating designated smoking areas to balance the interests of different groups and achieve more effective legislation. According to statistics, 50% of high-income countries allow designated smoking areas in specific public places, while 32% of middle-income countries and 21% of low-income countries allow smoking areas in any public place. In 2023, a new regulation in Portugal will allow restaurants, bars, and other establishments to have designated smoking areas, provided that the area is not less than 100 square meters, the ceiling height is not less than 3 meters, and the smoking area does not exceed 20% of the consumer activity area. Vietnam has implemented a new regulation which prohibits smoking in indoor places such as government offices, educational institutions, and cinemas, while allowing designated smoking areas in hotels, trains, bars, airports, and other public places.

Zheng Yizheng from the National Tobacco Economic Research Institute (Policy Research Office), Jiang Honghai from the National Bureau Office, Lin Zhengling from Fujian China Tobacco, and Lu Fei from Beijing Municipal Bureau (Company).
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